Tuesday July 22, 2014


So who thinks that the Jews are cockroaches? Who are you backing? Israel or Hamas?
Report from the Greek Hovel Number 12 – Coping with Fear
Rats, Bats & Sheep – Report 11 from the Greek Hovel

PERSONAL, UNDILUTED VIEWS FROM TOM WINNIFRITH

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Quindell – Industrial Deafness: Humouring a Bull but the Maths still Don’t Stack Up

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I am urged by various bulls to reconsider my questions on Quindell with reference to data provided by the Institute of Actuaries on Industrial deafness. I have referenced that data and it bears out my thesis 100% in that it shows that there is not a cat in hell’s chance of Quindell hitting its target of 72,000 cases a year settling at £9,000 + on average.

A bull posted on the comments thread:

I suggest you read this. Very interesting and numbers are rising and well above the 20,000 you quote. If you look back as well they were peaking at 85,000. Could we be returning to those days. Most likely given this is probably the new whiplash.

Okay Mr Bull lets go to the paper from the actuaries which you can find here – pages 44 and 45 are what to look at.

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Quindell: Buy, sell or hold? The answer will NOT surprise you

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On 15th May I asked whether Quindell at 20p (300p in today’s money was a buy sell or hold? I concluded that the odds were that 20p (old money) was probably the right price but the truth was I did not know. It was not a share one had to own. In light of a series of new facts, I have changed my mind and my target price is now sub 20p ( new, post-consolidation, money).

My conclusion in the first piece you can read HERE was:

So if you hold the shares do you carry on holding? Well again if you say that you have a 80% chance of making 10% and perhaps a 10% chance of making 100% + but also an outside chance of making MINUS 95%. Is that really the best home for your money? On a risk reward basis there have to be better homes.  This is not a stock one has to own. As a cautious soul I think I’d rather sit on the side-lines and watch events unfold until there is more clarity one way or t’other. 

So what has changed?

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Quindell - Are you listening: Can you please verify your Industrial Deafness claims

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Quindell (QPP) announced just before its AGM a mammoth and instantaneous change of business in its largest division (Quindell Legal Services, QLS) a – shift into industrial deafness. I find its numbers startling and would like to know the assumptions that it makes to justify its claims.

Quindell has claimed that as of June it will be generating 75% of divisional profits ( and QLS is 75% of group profits) by processing 6,000 deafness claims a month on which it will earn an average fee of £9,000 with most cases settling in 9-12 months. It says that it will source business from clinics who do an initial pre-screen. Okay. That sounds great. Until you start talking to folks who have been operating in this sector for years. Which I have been doing all day.

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Quindell – Small Scale Director Share Purchases mean Jackshit – In fact they are a sell signal

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Rob Terry has today announced that he has bought £31,667 worth of shares in Quindell (QPP) at £1.90. Yesterday the new CEO bought a few shares. These purchases are all PR – designed to restore investor confidence in shares that are tanking. It is a smokescreen. This is a sell signal and here’s why.

£32,000 is peanuts for Terry. Remember that in 2013 Rob earned £1.32 million (including a £720,000 bonus). In addition as disclosed in the accounts “During the year, the Group made sales of £1,000 to, and purchased goods and services totalling £77,000 and fixed assets of £90,000 during the year from Advance Data Simulations Limited, a company controlled by R Terry.”  I have no idea what all that is about but I suggest to you that £32,000 is small beer for Terry.

We have been here before. 

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blinkx – I disagree with Gary as it is a sell & my top three stocks to short on AIM

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Yesterday my colleague Gary Newman argued HERE that at 66p shares in blinkx (BLNX) were a buy. I respect Gary but disagree with him, this company is not worth £264 million. The shares remain a sell.

I start on the fundamental basis that Ben Edelman accused blinkx of engaging in illegal activities. blinkx blustered and used lawyers to bully. But it has failed to deal with Edelman’s core allegations and has not actually instigated legal proceedings against him. Watch the Edelman UK Investor Show video HERE and see what you think. 

Now if Edelman is correct you really have to question the quality of earnings and earnings visibility here – as such I’d put blinkx on a very lousy PE.

blinkx does at least have $126 million cash 

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Exclusive: Gulf Keystone to announce major joint venture with Chevron within days – source

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Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) have soared in recent days partly on hopes that Todd Kozel would be given the boot at the AGM on 17th July but also on speculation that the company could receive a takeover approach. We understand from a reliable source that there will be no bid.

However

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Video Postcard #69 – The racism that some folks find acceptable – anti-Semitism

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Prompted by the shocking attach of anti-Semitism in Manchester this week I ask why this form of racism is deemed acceptable in some quarters.

Anti-Semitic attacks in Europe are at the highest levels since the 1930s despite the large drop in Europe’s Jewish population that happened between 1939 and 1945.  Why is this?

Part of the reason is that low level attacks – snide press comment for example – go ignored. That has to stop.

Tom’s financial postcard looks at the dangers of acquisition led growth, especially in the current climate and that video can be watched HERE

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