Wednesday October 01, 2014


I was dragged to the Police station in Kardamili and bullied, Greece in context
A final farewell to Kambos and the Greek Hovel (for this summer)
Frigana Fields of Death Picture Special from the Greek Hovel

PERSONAL, UNDILUTED VIEWS FROM TOM WINNIFRITH

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Value Investing and Chinese Stocks – Asian Citrus, a sell even though shares trade at a discount to stated net cash

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Asian Citrus (ACHL) appears to be one of the better Chinese stocks on the AIM Casino but although it now trades at a steep discount to stated net cash and a vast discount to net assets it just cannot qualify as a value investment and you’d be mad to touch its shares with a bargepole. In fact its a sell.  Here’s why.

First a little reminder of the history of this producer of Oranges and to a lesser extent bananas. It listed in AIM in 2005 at 112p a share. Now let’s wind forward to December 2013 when someone purporting to be a value investor a Mr Marcel Springorum wrote:

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PR spinning, share price obsession, misleading investors – Avanti Communicatons, look to sell on Monday results

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Avanti Communications (AVN) is a Bulletin Board darling which spews out more than its fair share of Red flag warnings. Its obsession with its share price is understandable given that it needs to get away yet another equity fundraising within 12 months. And hence I draw your attention to a release issued on Friday.

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Horse Hill – what’s the timeline and what’s the upside for Alba, UK Oil & Gas, Solo, Stellar etc

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The excitement is mounting at Horse Hill, the oil prospect near Gatwick. But what is the timescale and what is the upside. Soon and big! But caveat emptor.

The six companies involved (Stellar Resources, Regency Mines, Alba Minerals, UK Oil & Gas, Solo and Doriemus) announced that drilling had started on 3rd September and was targeting a total depth of 8,680 feet. As I understand it the first few hundred feet is drilling by one rig then a larger rig goes onto site. I have no idea when exactly that will happen but when it does the excitement begins as the larger rig can drill at such speed that the whole project will be completed within sixty days.

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Why Scotland needs the Painful Medicine of Independence and must vote YES for ITS sake

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Scotland is the Greece of the North. 89% of its population are net takers from the State. Its share of the National debt is £108 billion which will be hard to support. It has a bloated Government sector and with oil revenues set to decline its financial position can only get worse. The only answer is independence. It must vote YES.

Yes some companies will redomicile to England. But as they have made clear very few actual jobs will be affected. This and threats from Cameron that the ISIS peril will be increased by a YES vote are all red herrings.

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Weekly Video Postcard #79 – Why Scotland should vote YES! To Independence

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After a morning hacking away frigana at the Greek Hovel, Tom’s message from the Greece of the South is for the Greece of the North – Scotland.

The independence debate is marked by delusion – on both sides. Tom suggests you watch former oil analyst Andrew Bell explain why the SNP oil numbers are all wrong HERE.

The reality is that Scotland has become a welfare addicted big Government economic failure. It is united with a Country with a different value set and approach to life. For its own sake Scotland needs independence so that its people can again learn the idea of self-reliance.

And English taxpayers have no moral obligation to fund a failed system of Government and economics. Speaking as an English taxpayer Tom is praying for a Yes vote.

Tom’s financial video postcard this week covers why he believes a stockmarket crash is on the cards and soon and can be viewed HERE

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Amara Mining: Great Drilling Results and the Loathsome Peter Hain MP buys shares

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We are well ahead on our tip to buy shares in Amara Mining (AMA) We told Nifty Fifty readers to buy at a 15.75p offer – the stock is now 23.75-24p. But there was interesting news last week implying that there is more upside still.

First came news of further drilling results from its key Yaoure project in Côte d'Ivoire demonstrating strong continuity and high grade areas. With further intercepts including 31 metres at 4.2g/t gold, 10 metres at 6.1g/t and 4 metres at 25.2g/t, the company emphasised that “this further increases our confidence in the Yaoure deposit and underlines the potential for selective mining of the CMA zone”. 

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Quindell now in “discussions” with Companies House over subsidiary accounts – what’s it trying to hide?

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So what is Quindell (QPP) trying to hide now? I guess that Rob Terry is getting a bit pissed off that I keep unearthing red flags in the regulatory filings of his 54 subsidiaries ( or is it 57, you kind of lose count). But in trying to reveal as little as possible it seems that the Quinnovation Group is now in a spot of bother with Companies House.

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Picture article: The summer draws to a close, grapes give way to prickly pears at the Greek Hovel

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The summer is drawing to a close at the Greek Hovel. My summer lasts for just another three weeks and then I must return to Britain. I shall miss this place badly.  But the physical summer is also drawing to its close. Nature is changing.

The grapes that used to sit in great bunches hanging from the vines that surround this house are all gone. I had my fair share but so too did some incredibly large wasps who after a day’s gorging would buzz around inebriated and stuffed. The wasps have gone and are now preparing, unknowingly, for death. 

Meanwhile I start to gather firewood whenever I find it. Not in an organised fashion but on an ad hoc basis. There is plenty kicking around and it is now being stored in the rat room. I will need it for the fire when I come back in November and December for the olive harvest and frigana burning. By then it will be only 22 degrees during the day and at night it will be a tad chilly.

In the evenings as I head down to Eleni’s most excellent Kourounis taverna in Kambos for a Greek salad I now wear jeans and a shirt. By the time I head back there is a chill in the air. The weather is slowly turning. Do not get me wrong, it is 3 PM now and I sit in shorts only - the afternoon heat is still intense, just not quite what it was.

And so with no grapes to snack on I am now onto prickly pears which grow on two giant cactus like plants just behind the hovel. 

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Reader Poll – when will the stockmarket suffer a crash? I think soon!

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In my weekend editorial on my Nifty Fifty website I will be explaining why I think that the stockmarket is likely to suffer a correction of 10-20% before Christmas. Others disagree – comrade Malcolm Stacey reckons that no such crash is on the cards. What do you think?

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