Wednesday April 23, 2014


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PERSONAL, UNDILUTED VIEWS FROM TOM WINNIFRITH

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Facebook still a sell down to $5 - EPS forecasts will be cut, earnings visibility getting worse

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- Tom Winnifrith

Slowly, it is sinking in. Facebook (FB) was floated in May as a growth stock. Forecasts and valuations were based on extrapolating historic trends. But in the new media world, that is impossible. My bear case against Facebook was always that the rating was too high based on historic numbers and that one had to be the metric used given that forecasting was impossible. Rather more quickly than I had expected, recent data is starting to vindicate my stance. I argued here on 28th August that the shares were worth $5, and I stand by that view.

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