I am a Trump supporter and, as I planned to stay up late for the debate, when team Trump spun that The Donald had prepped by playing golf I hoped that this was just lowering expectations. Sadly I now believe that it was what Trump actually did as he was not good last night. He rambled, he did not force the agenda, as Hillary did, to key issues like how corrupt she is, and he dealt poorly with her points on his lack of a published tax return. But while liberal media commentators now say that it is game over they are very wrong.
Can they not remember how Obama was thrashed out of sight by Romney in their first debate or how John Kerry mastered Bush Senior and Gore walloped Bush junior. In all three cases the big winner of the first debate lost the election. There was a small blip in the polls afterwards but it soon unwound.
Little Matt Frei visibly creamed himself on Channel 4 at 4 AM GMT as he talked of a knock out blow but the polls don't show that. Frei will talk of the CNN poll which shows Clinton a big winner but CNN has a liberal audience. Breitbart and right wing sites show Trump won. www.NJ.com now has more than 200,000 folks taking part in its poll and Trump is ahead by 57% to 38%. Most viewers will have come away as they went in.
If you liked Hillary you will gloss over her failure to deal with the email issue, the way Trump busted her on law & order and on taking the black vote for granted, on the way he talked of asset bubbles and most Americans feeling poorer or of her awful record on the international stage. If you like Trump you will ignore the fact that she was sharper on facts, that Trump rambled and occasionally just went totally off script ( we don't care that his 10 year old son is a computer whizz), that she nailed him on some awful comments on women and on his tax affairs.
On balance she was more of a polished politician and that will swing some undecideds. But then again Trump did hammer time and time again the narrative that the politicians have screwed everything up for 30 years and American wants and needs change. It does and that is not gong to alter before November 8 and Trump will push that message again and again and it is working in those key swing states: North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia which are all very much in play.
While Trump interrupted in an unpleasant manner, Clinton injected some really nasty personal jibes into the forum and Trump made a point of not returning the low blows. That might help him.
When Hillary dragged out some Hispanic beauty queen who Trump had insulted and said she will not be voting for you, I rather wish Trump had countered "talking of female voters, do you think that you will also be getting the votes of Monica Lewinsky and Gennifer Flowers?" Trump opted not to get into the gutter at that point, that may play to his advantage. We shall see.
But there are still six weeks to the election. An awful lot can happen between now and then. Might Deutsche Bank trigger another financial crisis? It might and that would cook Hillary's goose. What about evidence that the Obama administration worked with ISIS to attack Assad? Or some more juicy email leaks which Julian Assange has promised. By the weekend those sort of matters will be far more pressing than last night's debate.
The eight reasons why I argued that Trump will win a few weeks ago still stand. The polls were neck and neck before the debate. There will, I predict, be a Hillary flicker upwards but while the liberal media tries to spin it as much more it is clear that the media is as trusted as little as the political classes so the debate won't prompt a big poll shift. Hillary may be 3-4 points ahead by the end of the debate news cycle tomorrow but by the weekend normal play resumes and that lead will be shrinking once again.
Having said all of that, I hope that team Trump prepares a lot better for the re-match, that the Donald learns to set the agenda, to come up with sharp soundbite facts and allows Clinton to lecture an America that is broken that it is not and to call her out for that lie.