3217 days ago
The weekend press is full of stories of doom and gloom and dividend cuts for BP (BP.) and Shell and clearly there are a stack of smaller companies that are totally screwed and where shareholders are likely to face total wipeout. In that vein I discuss Magnolia (MAGP), Igas (IGAS), Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite (XEL) and, of course, LGO Energy (TOAST). But is there a case for buying oil shares as a long term invester. I look at a few cases from BP down to Union Jack Oil (UJO). Perhaps there is no rush but the time will come.
3304 days ago
On Guy Fawkes night I reflect on the horrors of this day. Then news from ECR Minerals (ECR) and W Resources (WRES) prompts me to look at the mining sector in general. Then it is onto Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) and my thoughts on oil, oil shares, the oil price and oil services companies. Then to the dismal numbers from Canaccord Genuity (CF.) - what it says about the whole sector but also its company specific issues. Finally I take a swipe at Range Resurces (RRL)
3380 days ago
I see that Gary Newman was tipping MX Oil (MXO) here yesterday. I admit that he knows far more about the company than I do. But I just think he is wrong. The problem is not the MX but the oil. This sector should be avoided like the plague.
3546 days ago
As a Sunday entrée we bring you rules 37-39 of the 49 Golden Rules of Making Money from Oil, Gas & Mining Shares, a book published just under a year ago by myself and Ben Turney. To get a free copy of the entire book mailed to you today just fill in the form HERE
Thirty seven: Don’t rely on CPR estimates among juniors
4445 days ago
The responsibility for this blog posting lies under contract with me and me alone and so in asking Sefton Resources PLC (SER), its chairman Jim Ellerton and its IR man Michael Green to explain why they have not told lies via RNS statement, I invite them to sue me personally if they feel I am being unfair. I shall see you in court and it will be my pleasure. Should Sefton and the two gentlemen mentioned above not take legal action investors can draw their own conclusions
4453 days ago
I have noted before the curious way that AIM listed penny share dreadful Sefton Resources (SER) communicates with its investors. Having advised you to bail at 2p initially I reiterated my sell advice a couple of days ago with the shares at 1.58p after the company issued piss poor interims. But my confusion with the way this company keeps investors updated grows by the day.
I start with its California producing assets and with what production Sefton has historically delivered.
On 6th March 2012 Sefton announced “Currently Sefton is averaging approximately 140 bopd for the month of February (with production as high as 178 BOPD in the later part of the month).”
Well er… not exactly.
4454 days ago
Oil producer Sefton Resources (SER) today announced its half year results which were – as is normally the case with this AIM listed penny share dreadful, pretty piss poor. A marginal increase in production and in the oil price meant that revenues for the six months to June 30th increased from $2.028 million to $2.283 million but since the cost of sales increased by more, the gross profit actually fell from $1.421 million to $1.338 million. What is the heck of pumping more oil if it cuts your profits?
After the predictably high central costs
4459 days ago
AIM listed oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum (NOP) farmed out its La Tosca gas play in the Po valley. So its costs in drilling the well were trivial. It was announced today that the well has been abandoned as a write off. In the greater scheme of things this is pretty irrelevant. It might have been worth a couple of pence per share to Northern it is now worth zero pence in total.
In contrast
4459 days ago
I noted earlier today how the way that AIM listed penny share oil explorer Range Resources (RRL) communicates with its investors is very odd indeed. My attention is now drawn to the way it has communicated with its investors over it operations in the Islamofascist hell hole that is Puntland. This really is curious.
4460 days ago
I took a fair old beating on the Bulletin Boards after advising you that AIM listed penny share oil explorer Range Resources (RRL) was hugely overvalued at 4.86p following the abject failure of its drilling campaign in the Islamofascist hell hole that is Puntland. Report him to the regulators screamed the muppets. He must be helping Evil who is short (he was not) said others. I was not. But the shares initially traded up to 5.6p which delighted both my critics who argued that I could not tip a waiter but also those who were so in love with the stock that they decided to buy more shares.
One helpful fellow commentated on this blog that I should bury my head in the sand. At least if that was Puntland sand I would not get any oil in my hair but I am afraid that is not my style and so with the shares now back at 4.76p I make a couple of observations.
4461 days ago
I met up with Derek Musgrove, CEO of AIM listed oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum (NOP) last night. He is an opinionated man but we disagree on little and so the conversation was wide ranging. But I guess you do not wish to here a detailed analysis of our predictions for West Ham this season (Musgrove is a lifelong hammer) but about Northern Petroleum. I am afraid that it is pretty much steady as she goes. No fireworks are likely in the short term but the stock is just ludicrously undervalued at 67.5p – giving it a market capitalisation of £64 million.
For starters Northern sits on a cash pile of c£20 million
4462 days ago
It is a strange old world and I gather that some folks reckon that there is a bid on the way for AIM listed oil exploration penny share Wessex Exploration (WSX). I bet you 5000 Albanian Lekke that there is not and as such I would rate this stock, at 7.3p, a sell. If you want exposure to Guyane (the only real asset of note in Wessex) I would obtain it by buying AIM listed Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 67.5p.
On 26th March Wessex received a bid from Total at 10p a share. The company said that it was minded to accept. On 12th April Wessex said that having consulted some shareholders it had decided the offer was not good enough and walked. My sources tell me that Total was livid.
On 10th July Wessex managing director Frederik Dekker sold 5 million shares (leaving him holding c92 million shares) at 6p
4464 days ago
I see that twitter has delayed its planned IPO. Well there is a surprise. After the debacle of the Facebook (FB) flotation I cannot think that investor appetite for new media stock is exactly enormous. My other reason for showing lack of surprise is that I think that Twitter really does not wish to undergo the sort of metrics scrutiny of its user base that Facebook has suffered.
For what it is worth
4466 days ago
Wednesday saw me enjoy lunch with Paul Atherley, the CEO and largest shareholder in AIM listed Leyshon Resources ( LRL) which at 11.5p is capitalised at £27.76 million. That is simply the wrong price. Other than the value in Leyshon, and the fact that Atherley is a Man United supporter who actually hails from the grim North rather than Esher, a number of other matters struck me.
4466 days ago
I noted here the other day that I had grave reservations about whether the Darwin condensate discovery made by AIM listed Falklands oil explorer Borders & Southern (BOR) was indeed quite the company maker that some folks thought it was. The shares were, at that stage 32.5p. Today they are 24.25p.
Apparently there is bad weather in the South Atlantic which some folks think will delay drilling down there. Get used to it. The waters of Port Stanley will never be like those off the Costa del Sol. That is a given. It should not drive share prices. I do note, however, that a leading oil analyst has served up a note which rather echoes my sentiments of a few days ago.
4469 days ago
Sincere apologies but thanks to a well known website beginning with A, I have been using the wrong issued share capital in calculating a valuation for AIM listed oil penny share Range Resources (RRL). There are not 1.129 billion shares in issue but 2.357 billion. Oh dear. This does nothing to alter the sell case I have expounded for some days except to make it more pronounced. I have revised the previous articles published to reflect this minor data error on a website beginning with A.
I stand by my conclusion that I would not buy this stock at any price until it agrees a new debt facility as it is almost out of cash. Moreover if that facility is agreed I would only buy at 0.75p or less in order to give me enough upside potential to justify the risk since my estimate of fair value falls – using the correct shares in issue – from 2.4p to 1.18p. Ouch.
4469 days ago
Having enraged half the lunatics who fall in love with small oil shares and post demonically on Bulletin Boards with my bearish remarks about AIM listed oil exploration stocks Range Resources (RRL) and Red Emperor (RML) – and having been vindicated already – it is time to piss off the other half with a few comments about Falklands darling oil penny share Borders & Southern (BOR).
At 32.5p Borders is capitalised at £157 million. Its shares raced ahead on 23rd August after announcing its analysis of the Darwin well drilled earlier in the year. The results are a 46-49 degree condensate with a mean recoverable volume of 190 million barrels. The company will start a seismic programme during 2013 with drilling thus unlikely to take place until 2014. The company is fully cashed up to fund the seismic and its ongoing (not insignificant) PLC costs but to drill it must either farm out the prospect or pass the hat around yet again.
190 million barrels of condensate sounds a lot. But is it?
4471 days ago
Following on from my comments about Range Resources (RRL) on Friday I have become far more convinced that the shares are, at 4.86p, a sell. You can read the original analysis HERE. There are two reasons for my strengthening view that this is not a stock to own in fact I would wait until the Puntland news is out and then whatever it says go short.
The first is a very odd investor Q&A released by the company on its website. Odd timing, just before the bank holiday and a few days ahead of the Puntland well results which it says will be within days. But
4472 days ago
AIM listed oil producer and explorer Range Resources (RRL) is a stock beloved of penny share bulletin board punters. That, I suppose, should be a good reason not to buy. I must admit that in my heart I would rate this as a slam dunk sell but there is just a chance that the shares are cheap. Let me explain.
We start with the strange goings on in Puntland. For those of you not familiar with Range this is not a parallel universe inhabited by a race of people entirely cloned from Evil Knievil, but a place which is now, after years of strife, autonomous from Somalia. I should say that it is not the sort of place you would really choose to do business, let alone go for a break in the sun, but there just may be a lot of oil there.
4487 days ago
I have never tipped – or that I can remember – written about AIM listed oil and gas company Sefton Resources (SER) and nor have I bought any stock in this penny share hopeful. The history of companies seeking to explore or produce hydrocarbons in the US but listing on Aim is so dire that I simply have not felt the need to seek an association. I cannot say that I know enough to rate the shares – at c2p – a buy or a sell. But an announcement today invites comment. Amid a stack of guff about appointing a new non exec and an operations director we are told:
Fox-Davies’ Site Visit
Recently Sefton’s lead broker Fox-Davies Capital completed a site visit to the Company’s operations in California and Kansas. Fox-Davies intends to initiate research coverage on Sefton in September once the interim results have been announced.
Award of Options
On finalising the £15 million EFF with Darwin Strategic Limited, Sefton agreed to grant Darwin 3.5 million share options which are exercisable at 3.25p over 3 years which has already been announced. Sefton has also agreed to grant Fox-Davies Capital1.5 million share options with the same terms and conditions.
Hmmmm.
4490 days ago
43 billion cubic feet of gas sounds like a lot. I am sorry to say that it is not as vast as it sounds. In fact it is rather small (call it 750,000 barrels of oil). This is the Tosca-1 well where AIM listed Northern Petroleum (NOP) has announced that it has now started drilling. It will take 40- days to reach target depth. The well is in the gas rich Po Valley in Italy. So why do we care?
4490 days ago
I note that yesterday, the stock price of AIM listed Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) jumped by 10.25p to 85.25p ( a gain of almost 14%) after it announced that it had spudded its first well in the South Atlantic as it always said that it would do in August. To be fair there was other news as well. But I wonder how many of those who piled in yesterday actually know what spudding means?
