Oilbarrel

3534 days ago

News from the Evil Empire – Stormtroopers almost all put on notice, Death Star in meltdown?

News has reached various rebel alliance outposts of massive explosions at the Death Star with almost all of the storm-troopers working at the Evil Empire now formerly put on notice. Oh dear. And we hadn’t even launched a major assault yet!

The word is that all staff bar one or possibly two at the t1ps/master Investor/Oilbarrel and Minesite organisations have now formally been put on notice. Senior stormtrooper Richard Gollum Gill will be leaving in a month’s time after his “resignation” and for some reason no-one else has been daft enough to offer the poisonous and talentless little shit a job.

Others such as Sith Lord Zak “Judas” Mir 

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3851 days ago

In defence of Negative articles ref QPP, Iofina, Globo, blinkx, Sefton, Range, etc.

Writing negative pieces about companies does not win you friends. In the past year I have enjoyed as a result: lawyers letters from companies, being sued for libel, shit posted to me in the post, death threats, stalking (yesterday), numerous complaints about me to the FCA, defamatory comments about me and my restaurant on the internet and now attempts to get ADVFN to stop me writing. Bollocks! What I do is right and in the interests of shareholders. I am not stopping. Nor will this website.

What you must first understand is the vast amounts of money that quoted companies spend on persuading investors to buy their shares. Commissioned research from Edison, Hardman, etc. is not cheap. PR firms charge up to £10,000 a month to plant positive spin in the press. Roadshows and presentations at Proactive and Oilbarrel or the recording of soft promo videos are not cheap. My guess is that between them QPP, Iofina, Globo and blinkx will have spent c£1.5 million of shareholders funds last year on trying to persuade folks to buy the shares.

Most commentators and brokers write overwhelmingly buy notes.

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4324 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kentz Trading statement, buy tip vindicated

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Kentz where Sam has already been correct and is now doubling up.

It is always something of a risk recommending a share ahead of a trading statement. I took that risk with Kentz Corporation (KENZ) on January 6th and a trading statement today vindicated that call: earnings are in line with what I expected, the order backlog better than expected as was the net cash position. The last time I commented the shares were 381p – they closed today at 424p, valuing the company at £498 million.

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4327 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Pan African Resources (PAF) – Buy at 18p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Pan African where he is even more bullish than I am. I hope he is correct.

It is not often that you see a mining mid cap or junior announce a rights issue – the norm these days is a placing at a deep discount, but as part of its recent fund raise, LSE and JSE listed Pan African Resources (PAF) did just that. On 14th January the company announced that the offer (at 14p) has been 175% subscribed for. Given that the shares had moved ahead to 18p after the rights issue was announced I suppose that is not surprising but that Pan African has such widespread support ( and has seen its shares prosper) amid the gold stock bloodbath of 2012 is no mean feat. This was a penny stock going nowhere just a few years ago, so is there market excitement behind it now? I would argue not

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4328 days ago

Guest post: Sam Bottell - African Barrick Gold – Takeover disappointment, more to come?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering an interesting enough gold stock.

Takeover talks do not always end with happiness all round. That is a lesson that shareholders in African Barrick Gold (ABG) have learned to their cost in recent days. On 16th August the company announced that, in effect, it was in takeover talks with China National GoldGroup Corporation. The shares rocketed to 492p. On 8th January the company said that talks were off. The share price is now 355p valuing the company at £1.46 billion. Is it worth hanging on to the shares on a fundamental basis?

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4329 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Resources – Equity Placing on the Way?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering a company from the old country ( er…Ireland)

I argued a few days ago that shares in Kenmare Resources (KMR) were good value but I now flag up a minor caveat – there appears to be a risk of an equity placing. A secondary caveat is that Kenmare appears to have issued a minor profits warning without actually publishing an RNS – it merely guided down expectation via an analyst’s presentation. That is not quite cricket but does this alter the investment case materially?

The presentation flags up that there has been a one month delay in the start of commissioning the Moma mine expansion project – that was due to kick off in December. In the greater scheme of things for a mine with a 140 year life I can live with that but it is another nuisance that that has plagued Kenmare over many years.

More critically, there is an update on the company’s outlook for 2013.

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4330 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Premier Oil a buy ahead of Thursday?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

If one tracks the Bulletin Boards the excitement in the oil sector always seems to surround the smaller oil companies. As my former colleague from my days working with Oilbarrel and t1ps, Robert Sutherland Smith, recently noted here one always needs exposure to oil. However buying a pure E&P punt is a play on exploration success and only indirectly on the crude price – it is not a true hedge – and that brings me to Premier Oil (PMO) which is a FTSE 250 stock valued at £1.94 billion. Its production and proven reserve base more than underpin that valuation leaving the exploration upside in for virtually nothing, something I expect to be demonstrated in an operations update out on Thursday 17th January.

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4334 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Antofagasta: Two reasons to sell now at 1323p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

I tend to agree with the conclusion

While many small cap miners struggled in 2012 both operationally and as a result of negative investor sentiment, through a malign market, the disappointments were not necessarily confined to the small fish. With a market cap of £13.072 billion, Antofagasta is a company that packs a punch but its size doesn’t necessarily mean it’s immune to operational setbacks. But it also faces a major macro negative. The shares are a sell at 1328p and here is why.

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4335 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Petroceltic - a buy?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

In 2012 the focus of Ireland based AIM listed oil explorer and producer Petroceltic (PCI) was corporate – the merger with Melrose Resources. In 2013 the focus is on growing the business by exploration. Exploration is inherently risky but there are enough, fully funded, diverse projects to offer material upside for the shares which trade today at 7.55p, valuing the business at £177 million. 2013 will be interesting.

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4340 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Own Goals compounded in an unloved sector but is the sell off overdone?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

As it happens I agree with his conclusion.

Like most mid cap mining stocks, Kenmare Resources (KMR) had a fairly rough 2012, its share price diving from 60p in the spring to 35p today. In part this is a cork on the wave effect: if a sector is thoroughly unloved as mining stocks were last year then it is hard to buck that trend. However, Kenmare was also hit by falling prices of the titanium it produces in Mozambique and by a continuation of its habit of scoring own goals. 2013 should see the start of a mammoth ramp up in output and cashflow generated and so is now a good time to back this Ireland based company?

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4342 days ago

Guest post from Sam Bottell: Afferro Mining – Buy for the bid or on fundamentals?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

AIM listed Afferro Mining (AFF) is a West African focused iron ore play. With a solid net cash position and an attractive portfolio of assets one can make a solid case for buying the shares on fundamentals, a case strengthened by the recent recovery in the iron price. But there is also a corporate angle with the company admitting just before Christmas that it can “confirm that it is in discussions with multiple parties which may or may not lead to a strategic investment or a proposal to acquire the outstanding shares of the Company.” Not surprisingly the shares have rallied from a year low of around 40p in the second quarter to a share price today of 101.25p today, valuing it at £106 million. But arguably there is more to come.

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4346 days ago

Central Asia Metals: Delivery in 2012, cash return in 2013

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

On AIM among mining stocks the norm appears to be for projects to be delayed, to run over budget and for companies to be constantly issuing shares to raise cash to keep going as a result. Central Asia Metals (CAML) bucks all three trends. Perhaps that is why whilst most mining shares fell sharply during 2012, Central’s share price of 122.5p is just 1p below the year high and values the company at £105.7 million. The company is now engaged in a material return of capital to investors via buybacks and dividends that will more than underpin the current level – indeed I suspect that this stock could trade at 150p within a year and here is why.

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4347 days ago

Gemfields (GEM) – A 2013 diamond?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell at minesite/oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

AIM listed Gemfields (GEM) has avoided the bloodbath affecting most junior miners during 2012. At a share price of 35.5p the company is valued at £114 million and is only 4.5p off its 12 month high. But could 2013 be the year when the shares really begin to sparkle?

The company’s principal asset is a 75% stake in the Kegem project in Zambia – this is the world’s largest emerald mine. In addition the company also has a 50% interest in the Kariba amethyst mine which is also in Zambia. These two assets leave the company as a solid cash generator.

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4349 days ago

Gulf Keystone (GKP) – 2013 the pivotal year? Time to buy?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell at minesite/oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece from TradingResearch Point…

Gulf Keystone (GKP) the AIM listed Kurdistan-centred oil exploration and production company has had an eventful year which has seen the share price tumble from highs of 425.2p to its current price of 167.5p. Day in day out it is the most discussed stock on the Bulletin Boards with its supporters convinced that the share fall is an opportunity. For them 2013 will be a pivotal year in Gulf’s development programme, the twelve months when their faith is rewarded. But will it be?

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