2732 days ago
"Congratulations on your anniversary" said a raft of messages from folks I once knew, barely know or don't know at all but who are connected to me on facebook for grown ups, that is to say LinkedIn. Er ....what thought I... what anniversary?
2812 days ago
Like all human beings I have an irrational interest in round numbers and thus I note simply because I am a bit of a saddo that this, my personal blog, has now been read 1,9999,972 times since it was launched just under five years ago. Now you make not think that this is a terribly big number.
2887 days ago
Like all humans I have an irrattional interest in tound numbers. 100, 1000 or in this case 14 million and 16 million.
3353 days ago
Three and a bit years ago at a total low point in my life I started up www.TomWinnifrith.com and about ten months later I started www.ShareProphets.com - late this weekend we pass a bit of a milestone, the 10 millionth page impression across the two sites.
Of course not everything on those sites is my work (although by page impression the vast bulk is) but I reckon I have generated another couple of million PIs for various other sites over the past couple of years but who cares about them? It is the two sites I set up that I care about.
As humans we are obsessed with round numbers so page impression 10 million is no more important than impression 9,999,999. But I will watch the clock tick with a smile anyway.
Next stop 10 million for ShareProphets alone (November) then 20 million across the two sites (September 2017?).
Thank you for reading my ramblings.
4115 days ago
While thousands ( sometimes tens of thousands ) of folks read my scribblings here and on shareprophets.com a far more select audience read what is on my premium site, the Nifty Fifty, which I produce with Steve Moore and Lucian Miers. My best ideas go there first. It is expensive but you pay for getting the best ideas first.
In our heyday at t1ps Steve Moore and I had a great track record. Over 11 years and c 240 tips our average gain was c 42.5%. Of course t1ps is now written by a couple of fellows who were still at primary school when the sire was launched. They claim the record of Steve, myself (and Robert Sutherland Smith) as their own in marketing material but it is OUR record. I can assure you that we never outsourced to primary schools.
Robert Sutherland Smith has been writing with me here and at www.shareprophets.com for a couple of months now and the news this week is that he will also be leaving t1ps for good at the end of September
4152 days ago
Rick Rule is a legendary fund manager within Eric Sprott’s group – the world’s leading gold and silver experts. He gave this interview the other day in a client call in. It really is great stuff. What he says about management quality in this sector is understatement of the year.
What’s going to happen with gold and silver?
They’re going to be extremely volatile. But these are the sort of times where gold and silver have done very well over time. Remember, as my friend John Mauldin puts it, “We want to own things central bankers can’t print.” They can’t print gold and silver.
Right now, we’re seeing a classic move from one set of hands to another.
4178 days ago
The Prime Minister requests the pleasure of the company of Mr Jonathan Straight at a reception to celebrate small business at Downing Street on Wednesday 5th June, from 4.30pm to 6pm
You would think it was a hoax, well wouldn’t you?
4184 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at Shareprophets.com on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at SSE. RSS writes:
Events have fully justified my earlier bullish judgement elsewhere that SSE (SSE) shares were good value on a then estimated 6% prospective dividend yield. The share price rose with grace and charm to a recent May time peak of 1690p, from whence profit taking brought them down to a share price of 1627p last seen having done better that the FTSE 100 Index over six months in a bull market where risk stocks have been rising.
This ‘safe’ utility,
4189 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Centrica. RSS writes:
The Centrica (CNA) narrative does not read like a John le Carrier novel. But its story has to be understood and explained if for no other the reason than it is a significant provider of high dividend yield income in the age of quantitative easing, low interest rates and low annuity rates. So instead of immediately leading you through a tantalizing tale of its activities during the first three months of the year, I shall start by alerting you to the fact that the company, having had a good winter at – quite literally- our expense, states that “we expect the residential energy supply business to deliver an operating profit for the full year in line with expectations, weighted towards the first half”. That has arisen because of the extended spell of cold and miserable weather in the UK during the first three months of an unforgettable year. April and May have not exactly been warm much of the time either.
4209 days ago
As of now there are two weekly video postcards. Over on www.shareprophets.com my financial postcard went live yesterday. It covers the markets, investor delusion and Quindell.
Here on TomWinnifrith.com there is the non financial video postcard which covers the EU, Call Me Dave but focusses in on why cutting foreign aid to Somalia ( not increasing it) would be good news for most Somalis and all Britains. Why foreign aid helps no-one bar criminals and guilty liberal elites.
4209 days ago
It is time to highlight and celebrate the very worst of AIM with the inauguration of the AIM Cesspit awards sponsored by Shareprophets.com.
At an awards ceremony in late June, real trophies will be presented to those who have helped make AIM the Cesspit it is.
There are seven awards of which two are objective mathematical awards and the rest awards where the winners will be decided by the investing public. The Cesspit year runs from May 1st 2012 to May 1st 2013.
The awards are:
IPO of the year – an objective award for the IPO which moves most rapidly from IPO to suspended pending clarification.
The Darwin award – an objective award for the company that destroyed most market capitalisation in the 12 months prior to its shares being suspended pending clarification.
Entrepreneur of the year – investors vote on which AIM CEO has destroyed value most spectacularly in the past year.
PLC Pig of the year – investors can vote on which AIM CEO or Chairman was most grotesquely over-remunerated relative to performance Cesspit lie of the year – investors vote on which RNS issued during the year by an AIM listed company was most misleading.
Cesspit deal of the year – investors vote on which merger or acquisition of the past year did the most to destroy value Cesspit entrepreneur of the year, the most coveted award, handed out to the man or woman whose over promotion of a stock, under-delivery and ability to destroy value has done most to contribute to making the Cesspit regarded as it is today.
The awards process starts today with nominations.
To make your nominations just
4209 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Legal & General. RSS writes:
The Legal & General (LGEN) share price is at the top of its game and the top of its trend pathway. It has risen 55% over a year in which the FTSE100 rose by only 16%. That gives scope for the share price to fall back again on profit taking. In Q1 the wind was decidedly in the Company’s favour. And the quarterly reports of insurance companies like winds are variable too. If you wish to by L&G shares for dividend yield, I dare to suggest that you may get a higher one in due course at a lower price.
It is the maturity of its more traditional UK markets as well as the catatonic state of the UK economy that is propelling the Legal & General to search for expansion in the business of fund management services both in the UK and internationally. Legal & General’s first quarter results were strikingly indicative of that
4210 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP. RSS writes:
One quarter’s results, usually gives an indication and little more about a company’s progress in a particular year; particularly a company as large, complex and international as BP (BP.). But these are not usual times by any definition, so far as BP is concerned. The accounting is complex; the headline figures dominated by a massive exceptional item. Read more at
4210 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Admiral. RSS writes:
Despite the above average gambling aspect of its unusual business model and payout policy, my instinct is to add the shares to my ‘shares for buying list’, on the limited ground (not too hasty I trust) of first quarter trading; the explicit confirmation of continuing financial strength and an estimated ‘super normal’ prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
4213 days ago
Shares in AIM listed Quindell Portfolio have slumped to 7.12p following a disastrous results presentation. But that still values this strange stockmarket beastie at more than £400 million. Folks cannot say that they were not warned about this… On my new www.shareprophets.com website, myself, Lucian Miers and Evil Knievil (SBM editors ‘pal’!) all warned folks to get out well before the current debacle. Personally, I still see the shares as a strong sell – there are just too many red flags here.
Supporters will tell you that the stock now trades on a PE of 5 and that the recent slump from 13p is all down to wicked short sellers and scumbags like me spreading disinformation. Er…no. I list below the red flag issues which should tell you that this will end in tears for the bulls and obscenely excessive bacchanalian celebrations round at Real Man Pizza Company for the bears.
4216 days ago
There is always intense competition for Bulletin Board Moron of the week but J Bravo Esq is this week’s winner with an absolute stonker on the subject of AIM Cesspit listed lifestyle Management Company, oops I meant to said oilfield services company, Vialogy (VIY).
Mr Bravo posts on ADVFN
4216 days ago
I reported some weeks ago how Sefton Resources (SER) had tried to smear its critic Daniel Level (aka Brokerman Daniel) who is – like me being sued for libel by the joke AIM company – by planting an untrue story in the Daily Telegraph of January 29th.
The story suggested that Dan was being beastly to Sefton as he was short. The Daily Telegraph has today apologized to Dan and withdrawn the offending article on the grounds that it was untrue.
But it gets better.
4216 days ago
At the weekend I exposed how Verdes Management (VMP) a company listed on the AIM Cesspit market had misled investors in a series of RNS announcements as it struggled to say afloat in recent months.
I detailed the pay accorded to the main man Adam Webb while the company played “jeux san revenues” with other folk’s cash, that is to say money raised from investors. But where did all the money go?
4217 days ago
A few weeks ago I reported to the Irish Olympic Committee that I had run 100 metres in sub 10 seconds. Since Ireland has never won a sprint gold, the lads were over from Dublin pretty quick to see me. They expected evidence of this claim like seeing a lean mean running machine. Instead they found a slightly overweight 45 year old man smoking a Marlboro light. I said that I had in fact run very fast down the garden path that morning and had calculated that I was a sub 10 second man but did not have my calculations to hand.
They were a tad disappointed. They did not call me a liar. But when some other folks said that my initial claim was a lie I could not argue. I have not actually done a sub 10 second sprint in my life.
And this brings us to US Oil & Gas which reported to the State of Nevada that its Ebiana-1 well was trucking along at a “producing rate of 60 bopd” prompting officials to visit the site. Produce at 60 bopd and there would be stacks of oil on hand (that is a lot of oil). But there was sod all oil on site. And so US told officials that it was “only a calculated rate” and there were no calculations on hand
4217 days ago
I have not dared look at the Gulf Keystone (GKP) Bulletin Board threads since myself and Zak Mir went openly bearish. The more I look at this the more I am bearish. Bear raider Lucien Miers outed himself as a bear over the weekend and he has dared look at the thread on ADVFN.
None of the points he raised is answered in any way. Instead there is a torrent of abuse for him (and also again myself, Zak and Shareprophets). Lucian thinks we should all now enter the witness protection programme. You can read all of our thoughts at www.ShareProphets.com – we are not deterred and will not be deterred from writing again.
4221 days ago
I am expecting that the next statement from Gulf Keystone will be “The company knows of no reason for the decline in its share price.” Well I can pre-empt that by stating that I can think of plenty and today’s cack-handed attempt to reassure investors is one of them. And so here goes with my six reasons why I am increasingly bearish about Gulf Keystone.
I am sure that bulls can answer some of them but not all I suspect. The Red Flags keep coming up on this one and I suspect they will keep appearing. I wrote last week Gulf Keystone and the Smell Test: Fail – I stand by my conclusions of then. But here goes with the questions.
4221 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at AstraZeneca. RSS writes:
With the first quarter’s results from Astra Zeneca (AZN) the curtain has gone up for the first act of what we all know will be a tough and difficult year; a stock market version of Gounod’s Faust but with a happier ending we trust. At least that is what the market expects to judge from the fact that the share price has risen some ten per cent from since the introduction and appointment of the new Chief Executive (whose name almost rhymes with Poirot) and his plan plus the fact the share price did not fall significantly on their publication - ending down 4.5p on the day to 3321p a share. His plan is to transform the company from its co-operative, external economy dividend favouring model, back to the drug discovery orthodoxy of more internally funded research and development; leaving the question hanging in the air about whether the company can increase internal R&D spending while at the same time maintain and increase dividends?
4222 days ago
Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Barclays. RSS writes:
Two seasons have arrived simultaneously: Spring, and the reporting season for Banks. The bank’s first quarter figures have been delivered along with some cheerful late arrived sunshine. In the real world of long delayed warmth and sun, things suddenly seem wonderfully natural and uncomplicated to the average, well adjusted, individual feeding his mossy lawn. Daffodils are daffodils and cherry blossom is cherry blossom. “Oh to be in England…etc.”
For the investor in banks life is not so natural, beautiful or straight forward.
4223 days ago
I described earlier in the week the disgraceful tale of Astar Minerals (ASTA), a sorry saga of investors getting screwed by advisers and directors banking fees. It is the sort of tale that is all too common in the cesspit that is the bottom end of AIM. You can check out the story here but at the time Astar shares traded at 0.35p valuing it at £1 million. Ho. Ho. Ho.
Astar is, of course, worth nothing like £1 million. It has £200,000 cash and every day that goes by the parasites that are its advisors nibble away at that figure. I reckon that the costs of staying on Aim for a year will be c£100,000 meaning that as an investment company it will have to beat Warren Buffett’s long term batting average by more than four times just to maintain its net assets position.
4224 days ago
A piece by myself and the great literary genius Zak Mir. Thanks for all the positive feedback on the Shareprophets.com service. And also for the suggestions! And so we have, over the weekend incorporated a few new features in the website.
First up is that your registration is now remembered so that you now do not have to login every time you access the site. Just periodically. This should make it easier to use.
Second up is that we have established a twitter account @ShareProphets – if you want an alert by twitter every time that we publish a new article just follow us on twitter. If you are interested...
4227 days ago
It seems like just yesterday that Easyjet dropped us off at the one airport on this Island. We were the only plane on the Tarmac and the terminal was 75 yards away. Naturally we waited 5 minutes for a bus to arrive to take us to the terminal. All must have non jobs.
I will offer a few more thoughts up on Greece but the flagpole is on the sea about fifty yards from where we are staying. It is not a bad view to wake up to. But this has been an all too brief stay and today we wend our way back towards the airport and tomorrow it is back to Britain. Farewell to the oil lake, to the wild dill, to Greek salads every meal, to the terrapins in the stream nearby and to Marlboro Lights at 3.90 Euro a packet. Farewell to a life of getting up at 4 AM your time to write on my PC on the balcony overlooking the sea while my partner snoozes.
Normal writing services resume as of Sunday evening. The Tomograph will be back next Wednesday. Meanwhile Darren will continue to load videos from the UK Investor Show onto both ADVFN and to Shareprophets.com - next up is Christopher Booker.
This has been a good place to think. An announcement is pending. Ho. Ho. Ho.
4234 days ago
I have not had a holiday since last summer and I am absolutely shattered – mentally and physically. And so my partner (whom some of you met at UKInvestor Show) and I are off to Greece for a week or two – as a liberated woman employed by the State it is only fair that she pays. Naturally I shall write for a few hours a day but mostly this is swimming, walking & winding down. It’s time to think.
You have to learn your lessons and
4236 days ago
A couple of days ago commissioned researcher Edison published a detailed buy note on AIM and TSX listed Arian Silver (AGQ) at 9p suggesting that a target price of 16p was achievable assuming that the company raised $21.4 million of debt and $8 million of equity at the then share price to meet its funding needs until it turns cash positive in early 2015. But life is not that simple, especially in an environment when precious metals prices are crashing.
4237 days ago
Aha, I am less in trouble I am now only one article in arrears at 24n.biz, the small business website that I write for. And I have three ideas of what to write. Hip Hip hooray! This is the latest offering in my weekly series on tips for small businesses ( SMEs).
It is 13 years and 17 days since I started my first company and prepared to launch my first product – a website with the (then) revolutionary concept of charging for access. Older and (I hope) wiser, last week I launched a major new product yet again. Once again it is a financial website. This time it is free to access. Naturally it is brilliant and I urge you to trot along to www.shareprophets.com and register at once. Thirteen years ago I had five months to prepare for product launch – this time it was one month. But the five point checklist is the same.
4238 days ago
Yes I know that all journalists are scumbags. I love my profession and feel that I fit in perfectly. But there are certain ethics. If a rival breaks a story you at least mention it before writing it yourself. You do nor write utter shit to obscure that fact. There are some ethics even in the gutter. But not it appears round at iii where some bird called Darshini Shah seems a little unfamiliar with this basic principle of our profession.
It is not often I break a bid story involving a £100 million capitalised company and, even better, get its shares suspended as a result. Allow me to savour my little triumph. But last night I broke the Range Resources bid story on Shareprophets.com – see HERE
And so this morning some person called Darshini Shah wrote on the iii “newspaper”
Shares in Range Resources (RRL) have been placed into a precautionary suspension, spurring investors' hopes that the company would be announcing a merger deal. In a statement released on Monday morning, Range Resources said shares would be suspended on AIM until the company could issue "a clarification announcement in respect of a potential significant transaction".
Range's shares have also been placed in a trading halt on the Australian Securities Exchange. Some users of the Interactive Investor discussion boards suggested African Petroleum could be the potential merger partner.
Ok enough of Darshini's fantasy. The facts are that I ran the story, named the merger partner and made sure that the right folks knew and thus the shares were suspended. But Darshini reckons they were suspended, apropos of nothing and then folks on the iii Bulletin Board broke the story sometime this morning.
Darshin, love: that might suit the ii narrative but it is not actually true is it? With your ethics and love of the truth maybe a switch to PR is in order?
PS If Darshini is a bloke not a bird I apologise.
4242 days ago
It is time for the workers to take control. Well at least in the world of financial writing. We have had enough of writing about stocks that do not interest for folks who mess us around and do not treat us with respect. For the avoidance of doubt I am not referring to ADVFN who are top bananas. But the workers co-operative has today launched www.shareprophets.com – our own project x.
Comrades Zak Mir, Steve Moore, Lucian Miers, Aubrey Brocklebank, Adnan Siddique, Sam Bottell, Dru Edmonstone, Brokerman Dan, Doc Holiday, myself and others to be revealed will all be writing there. There is data on the stocks you follow, alerts on when comment appears on stocks that interest you, and a lot more to come. And it is totally free, just go register at www.shareprophets.com and answer the confirmatory email sent to the address you give and you are in.
The writers will write about what THEY want. There is no Big Brother dictating what they should cover or say. Free speech, free comment, no holds barred. Game on.
I look forward to your feedback on the site, we will tweak it as we go alive but it is now live and almost 100% bug free.
Tom
