2427 days ago
Tomorrow is the birthday of the Mrs so there may not be a bearcast. If not I shall be back on Wednesday morning ahead of a flight to New York on Global Shorting Conspiracy business. In today's podcast I look at why gold like my Wisdens is an investment. Then I discuss two shares in AIM stocks which, for very different reasons, I am considering buying next week and I'd like to thank one of my colleagues for - perhaps - giving me a chance to do so very cheaply. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and Paul Scott. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH
3482 days ago
As you know I like alternatives as an asset class with my alternative portfolio being Wisdens. We held a session on the analysts floor at UK Investor Show 2015 on alternatives and here it is.
4270 days ago
This went out on onefreesharetip.com a few weeks ago but perhaps meriots a wider audience I stand by my view expressed here:
It is part of the British DNA that we believe that house prices must always go up. That is not the case. Be warned. Falls of 30% or more are inevitable within the next few years.
Of course inflation (the erosion of the purchasing power of the pound) has made house prices a one way bet since the early 1970s. I will not bother serving up a chart just imagine climbing a ski slope. But this is an inflation given gain. It simply reflects, to misquote Harold Wilson that the pound in your pocket is worth far less than it was. You might note that in 1971 you could buy an ounce of gold for £14. Today that will cost you more than £1000. The destruction in the purchasing power of Sterling during the past 42 years has meant that all physical assets look, in headline terms, like smart bets, housing included. You cannot live in a bar of gold but it has actually been a better bet than UK house prices. So as it happens has been am 1870 Wisden cricket annual, but again you cannot live in it.
House prices have not, as anyone who bought in 1987 will remember, moved in a straight line. There are periods when they fall sharply. That happens because a) they get overheated and b) because there is one of two external shocks: either a sharp rise in unemployment or a sharp rise in interest rates and either of those two triggers mean that large numbers of people with mortgages cannot pay, default and become forced sellers.
