472 days ago
In today’s podcast I look at interest rates, unemployment, a prescient Bearcast on Wilko last November, and flying small caps, what next and what should you do?
473 days ago
Gold bug, author and investor Alasdair Macleod believes that the US dollar is heading towards a major financial crisis due to its unsustainable debt trap, contraction of bank credit and rising interest rates. What a cheery fellow.
884 days ago
I describe Thursday morning for me and Jaya, including a stop-in with my parents-in-law. This is relevant, as I discuss what my mother-in-law was watching on TV. I look at the house price bubble, the Bank of England, and interest rates. Then, I touch on THG (THG); ASOS (ASC); Sosandar (SOS); Zephyr Energy (ZPHR) – get your wallet out, Cliff; Wildcat Petroleum (WCAT); Kinovo (KINO); and Boohoo (BOO). I also discuss the notion that MusicMagpie (MMAG) has a list of “spiffing institutional inveestors”, and that this will save the company. It won’t.
930 days ago
The reference is to the fact that there is only 1 candidate in the local elections where I live and he is a king sized dickhead. From that I move onto interest rates and why they should have been increased by more than 0.25%. Of course we should not be in this inflationary mess anyway. Then it is onto Vast Resources (VAST), Trainline (TRN), Seraphime (BUMP),Parsley Box (MEAL) and musicMagpie (MMAG). I will try to complete my long promised share purchases tomorrow and to discuss them then.Thank you to all who have donated to Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks. We are now at 15% of target but still 97% of Bearcast listeners have yet to chip in. Come on, just a fiver or a tenner: please do donate now HERE. PS The reference to Kirstie Allsop and a podcast is about this one HERE.
1005 days ago
Analyst Mark O’Byrne is puzzled by gold’s lack of reaction to current global risks. He says that the metals should have moved higher in response to inflation. Supposedly, they are anticipating rate hikes but a large move seems unlikely as that would crash the markets. Inflation is not transitory and we’re just seeing the start of it. He expects weakness in the short term for gold as Fed takes some sort of action. Then he says that within a short period afterward, we will see gold break to the upside.
1054 days ago
Yes Piers Linney is back. I fill in a few gaps for Mail readers including red flags from the latest venture of disgraced Piers, Moblox Limited. Then it is onto macro predictions on oil, gold, interest rates,inflation, house prices, tax, equity markets and bitcoin. Happy New Year.
1118 days ago
I start with letters I have or will be writing to two regulators. One is about a thief and a liar in Dublin and I explain why the Central Bank really should act but possibly will not. The other is about a company on the Standard List exposed HERE today and I urge the FCA to take immediate action. Then I discuss the inevitability of higher interest rates. How will you cope?
1321 days ago
Gold businessman Keith Weiner argues that there is no way to extinguish debt in our current system, so the total debt grows, and due to interest, it tends to grow exponentially. He says that in the past, the Fed loosened regulations and lowered rates, but it’s like they are now pushing on a string.
1554 days ago
Economist David Rosenberg says that flattened yield curves are promoting liquidity issues, credit supply has been contracting, and the velocity of money is also declining. So, he argues, if money velocity stabilizes were going to get a lot more inflation, and perhaps that is what gold is trying to signal.
2606 days ago
I note some of the comments made about the demise of Monarch Airlines and add my critique. What really struck me is how the 2000 staff will each get just one week's pay. How will they cope? I was today given some data on UK consumer debt and savings levels which is jaw dropping and terrifying. It gets worse. The interest rates we pay on our debts are already starting to rise. Again how will the consumer cope? And what does this all mean for your portfolios and your personal finances?
2624 days ago
It is my son's first birthday today - how time flies! I start with a look at inflation. It is back! And the greed of the lazy public sector workers (demonstrated clearly HERE) will fuel it which means interest rate rises ahoy. I suggest this has clear implications you should not ignore. Then I take a detailed look at IQE (IQE),its last results,investor perceptions and explain why I believe that the shares at 131p are a very poor risk reward play for the bulls like Comrade Stacey.
2880 days ago
Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.
3033 days ago
Negative interest rates? Mortgages for the unemployed? Theresa May and Hillary Clinton reckoning they can solve the economic mess with "new Government policies". It is a mad, mad world. And sooner or later we will face a day of reckoning for the economy, for shares and for property prices that will be brutal in a way you cannot imagine as I explain in today's podcast
3206 days ago
Warning: This podcast contains a lot of bad language and images of a sexual nature. As far as I understand it, Sweden is known for the fact that 95% of its population enjoy thrashing the naked buttocks of other folk's partners at the weekend. But it is not this that concerns me but its insane Central bank which has cut interest rates again ... to minus 0.5%. I reflect on this madness and the insanity of Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve and then on the gold price. I look at a few gold stocks racing ahead wrongly ( Condor (CNR), Goldplat (GDP) and Patagonia Gold (PGD)) and at others I might buy. I comment on the insane dead cat bounce at Motive TV (MTV) and on the odd behaviour of crony capitalist PR man Reg Hoare of TrakM8 (TRAK) and explain why its shares are still a sell. Then it is onto the deadlines for Solo Oil (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) going under as Neil Ritson tries his hand at Leni-Maths. And I also have a trivial pursuit question for you all.
3315 days ago
In today's podcast I look at the Portugal Coup and what it means for the EU and the Euro. Then onto profits warnings and where I see equities going and finally a note on Mark Carney, UK base rates and UK house prices.
3357 days ago
In today's podcast I look at the Greek Election next week. The voting is irrelevant, Angela Merkel will remain in charge whoever wins. Greece is still fucked and I explain why. Then it is onto interest rates in the US and UK - the FOMC meets on Thursday. Then asset bubbles and crowdfunding - an en passant mention for Vitesse Media. Finally to Hotel Corp (HCP) and the disgraceful smear compaihn by crony capitalist motherfucker Derek Short and Shore Cap against Marcus Yeoman. I have some bad news for Short & Shore Capital. Warning: this section contains some bad language.
3399 days ago
My father is at Church and the the pub and so I am able to record a quick podcast covering three themes. First the snearing and dying deadwood press - something prompted by THIS. Then interest rates. And then Wandisco. For more on Wandisco, as mentioned in the bearcast, Investor Show magazine out this weekend HERE
3450 days ago
Greece is getting interesting again and in this podcast I explore who will be the big losers from Grexit and it won't be Greece. The fallout threatens many aspects of the Western financial markets but the bigger threat is interest rates which are going to rise sooner than you think. Warning: this podcast contains extreme bearishness
3764 days ago
Investment Case: As the UK's leading independent business recovery practice, Begbies Traynor (BEG) has been unsurprisingly adversely impacted by a low interest rate environment and lenders being unable or unwilling to crystallise losses. However, the company has restructured and remains profitable and cash generative, with an attractive dividend and undemanding rating based on its current performance. There are though now also signs that things are turning in its favour - “the expectation of an increase in interest rates over the forthcoming months has escalated recently” and with it “also retain the capacity and expertise to handle an increase in activity levels should they arise, which would result in improved profitability due to the inherent operational gearing in the business”. As such, at a current 53p offer price, the shares are a buy. Here's why.
4029 days ago
I hope you appreciate my efforts so far on behalf of Movember. This is the first time in my life that I have grown daft facial hairs. If you might care to sponsor me for a few quid you can do so HERE
The video postcard this week discusses the inconsitencies, weaknesses and other issues which are making me like UKIP less and less.
My financial video postcard discusses the ongoing UK consumer boom, what it means for QE, base rates and shares and can be watched here.
4291 days ago
FTSE 250 listed, Housebuilder Barratt Developments (BDEV) issued an upbeat trading statement on 16th January covering the six months to 31st December and there is little doubt that the results out next week will contain no nasty surprises. The company has a forward order book equivalent to around four months of sales and as such there is no reason to expect any great change in trading in the second half. Yet with house prices now on a multiple of average wages seem only once before in living memory ( 2007) and with the normal catalyst for a house price correction ( a rise in interest rates) surely only a matter of time the current rating looks untenable.
