t1ps.com

1305 days ago

The 30 most read articles in almost nine years as TomWinnifrith.com reaches a landmark of 3 million page views

Okay that is not a huge number. Despite being behind a paywall my main site, www.ShareProphets.com has achieved almost ten times as many reads in one fewer year. But some might be surprised that my ramblings on rebuilding and living in hovels in Greece and Wales, on life on both, on politics, on jokes and on all sorts of other matters, mainstream and obscure, get any readers at all. So this is a modest landmark. When this website started it was therapy for me at a very difficult time in my life and I’d be lucky to get 30 page impressions in a day.

3589 days ago

Breaking: T1ps.com is shutting down

Having lost almost all of the 3,000 readers it had 30 months ago the financial website t1ps.com is to shut down, we can reveal. Its editor Richard “Gollum” Gill is looking for alternative employment. To mark this sad day, our resident in house poet has penned a short offering.

So Farewell then
t1ps dot com.

Once the UK’s

3991 days ago

T1ps.com Ltd has gone into administration: its official

By guest writers Han Solo & Luke Skywalker: Are you a customer of t1ps.com Ltd? Have you considered attending its dismal Master Investor show? No? Well, with less than two dozen stands we can’t blame you either. But as the company advertises for your custom has it pointed out one little matter? It went into administration last Tuesday and its sole director has quit. What, it did not tell you that?

4026 days ago

Drinking at Rebel Alliance (secret) HQ

In the rebel alliance HQ in Clerkenwell drinks are flowing freely tonight.

24 hours after the launch of www.hotstockrockets.com it already has more subscribers than the ailing Empire Death Star www.watsnothotatall.com . In 24 hours www.hotstockrockets.com has taken more revenue than the ailing site will take in one year. Oh Dear.

Another setback for the Empire. And another day of triumph for the Rebel Alliance. We offer quality content from the freedom fighters who believe in free speech. Darth offers the dark side of the force and is bleeding cash. And it is no surprise that mid-rank Imperial Commanders continue to dock in at the obscure planet moon EC1 to discuss defection.

The Force is strong..

4054 days ago

Pond Life: noticing the equinox – a bullish macro view

My old colleague and fellow t1ps emigre, Robert Sutherland Smith writes from the Hampstead Ponds...

The arrival of the autumn equinox probably went unnoticed by the majority of the fully clad population, enclosed as it is, in heated office home, car and train. But not amongst the minority of open water swimmers who are in true tactile touch with the outside world of the weather with myself at the Hampstead Ponds every morning.

4068 days ago

The 3 Lunch Tuesday and a Sinner from t1ps Repenteth

I realized last week that I had ballsed up my diary and had arranged to have 2 lunches on Tuesday at the same time. I juggled and so arranged lunch one for 1 PM and lunch 2 for 3.30 PM. Still not feeling 100% I trekked up to London for a meeting with Enables IT and braced myself for lunch one having just enough time to check my emails. Bugger. Hell's Teeth.

4073 days ago

Buy Advanced Computer Software at 86.25p – target 150p

Steve Moore and I first recommended this stock several years ago at 14p when we ran tips.com ( netting an average gain per tip of 45% during our 12 year tenure). The shares are still a buy at 86.25p

Steve & I will be publishing a new hot tech tip on our Nifty Fifty site this afternoon. For access to that tip click HERE

Investment Case:

4081 days ago

Sorry Abbe Aronson – you will have to go topless for now

Bad news for Abbe Aronson, the girl who broke my heart in 1985 – she will have to go topless for now. For Abbe requested a “Sefton is fucked T-shirt” which I dutifully ordered for her but had not quite got around to posting. And blow me down but a customer rolled into Real Man Pizza in Clerkenwell today and said he really, really wanted to buy one. The chap is apparently trying to get a mining exploration company in Afghanistan underway. If he ever organises a press trip, I told him he can offer my place to someone back at t1ps who really deserves a week or two in Helmund province. Don't all say it - I am just too much of a nice guy.

Anyhow, sorry Abbe. On that holiday you are planning (I really do recommend Albania) you will have to go topless. I shall order another one for you right away.

Of course you can pick up your very own shirt HERE

4086 days ago

Looking back a year tomorrow as Malcolm Stacey joins us from Sharecrazy

A year ago tomorrow t1ps.com, the website I set up in my bedroom published a defamatory and malicious piece about me in the name of Steve Moore, James Faulkner and Richard Gill. Our connection was utterly severed and I found myself working alone in the world running just this, my personal blog. Boy has the world changed.

As you may know Steve Moore was on holiday when that piece appeared and when he discovered what had gone out in his name and without his consent or knowledge, he resigned on principle. Then there were two of us. Soon after Darren Atwater took a pay cut, quit and moved to join us. Then Lucian Miers followed suit. Then Robert Sutherland Smith. Paul Nicholson, from the Isle of Man has hooked up with us since. And tomorrow, a year to a day since that infamous episode Malcolm Stacey – the founder of ShareCrazy.com joins our merry band with his debut piece on www.shareprophets.com

In the space of one year

4115 days ago

New tip on my Nifty Fifty within 24 Hours and the old t1ps team 100% reunited as one at RMPC

While thousands ( sometimes tens of thousands ) of folks read my scribblings here and on shareprophets.com a far more select audience read what is on my premium site, the Nifty Fifty, which I produce with Steve Moore and Lucian Miers. My best ideas go there first. It is expensive but you pay for getting the best ideas first.

In our heyday at t1ps Steve Moore and I had a great track record. Over 11 years and c 240 tips our average gain was c 42.5%. Of course t1ps is now written by a couple of fellows who were still at primary school when the sire was launched. They claim the record of Steve, myself (and Robert Sutherland Smith) as their own in marketing material but it is OUR record. I can assure you that we never outsourced to primary schools.

Robert Sutherland Smith has been writing with me here and at www.shareprophets.com for a couple of months now and the news this week is that he will also be leaving t1ps for good at the end of September

4184 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: SSE Results - Buy now or later?

Events have fully justified my earlier bullish judgement elsewhere that SSE (SSE) shares were good value on a then estimated 6% prospective dividend yield. The share price rose with grace and charm to a recent May time peak of 1690p, from whence profit taking brought them down to a share price of 1627p last seen having done better that the FTSE 100 Index over six months in a bull market where risk stocks have been rising.

This ‘safe’ utility,

4184 days ago

t1ps reunited… Robert Sutherland Smith joins the Shareprophets team

It is always good to be firmly reunited with old friends. Robert Sutherland Smith and I started working together along time ago when he was only 148. I am pleased to say that he is, as of yesterday, devoting his freelance enterprises to www.shareprophets.com – thus the four key writers who made t1ps what it (once) was: myself, Steve Moore, Zak Mir and RSS are all reunited again over at www.shareprophets.com

RSS will continue to pen a monthly Pond Life column here but three times a week he will be analysing a FTSE 350 yield stock over on Shareprophets. Having started his City career in 1967 ( the year before I was born) RSS knows what he is talking about.

While some financial websites groups have recently admitted to sharply falling numbers I am delighted to say that after less than two months www.shareprophets.com already has 7,000 registered users who go there for free share data on all UK listed stocks as well as breaking news and cutting analysis from 20 writers with the men who made t1ps what it was at the heart of it.

If you have not registered you can do so for free at www.shareprophets.com

4184 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith United Utilities a 2012 7.2% dividend hike - what's next?

My last look at United Utilities (UU.) on a site I have now abandoned to join the winning team here at Shareprophets with all my efforts, was just over two months ago, pointing out the attractions, adding them to my shares to buy tray and suggesting it was worth looking at. Since then, the share price seems to have risen by 17% as a reminder that the modern stock exchange, despite all the digital computer technology and highly rewarded analytical anorak power, is far from being a perfect market in the economic sense of the word. The price in late March was about 671p. It is now, last seen, 789p; an almost explosive share price rise.

4186 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Greggs Q1 Results is the 4.8% yield safe

There is something comforting about Greggs (GRG) the Newcastle based convenience food company; as reassuring as Geordies cheerfully tucking into sausage rolls, whilst sitting astride a cask of Newcastle Brown to the sound of a brass band playing “Pick ya feet up Geordie Hinnie” – and what is wrong with than man, do I hear you ask?

The sight of a Gregg’s shop on some British High Street somewhere across the land, is as reliable a token of our national identity as – at the other end of the economic and social scale – champagne and hats on Ladies Day at Ascot. And in my book a Gregg’s sausage roll and a cuppa wins my affections every time.

So it is sad to see that Gregg’s is having a torrid time on the stock exchange

4189 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Centrica - the Gas Man Cometh

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Centrica. RSS writes:

The Centrica (CNA) narrative does not read like a John le Carrier novel. But its story has to be understood and explained if for no other the reason than it is a significant provider of high dividend yield income in the age of quantitative easing, low interest rates and low annuity rates. So instead of immediately leading you through a tantalizing tale of its activities during the first three months of the year, I shall start by alerting you to the fact that the company, having had a good winter at – quite literally- our expense, states that “we expect the residential energy supply business to deliver an operating profit for the full year in line with expectations, weighted towards the first half”. That has arisen because of the extended spell of cold and miserable weather in the UK during the first three months of an unforgettable year. April and May have not exactly been warm much of the time either.

4190 days ago

One Year Old – today: A look back

It was a year ago today that the first article appeared on this blog. Most blogs fold after a period of months but I am still here. And to celebrate a glass of bubbly for breakfast! The toast “to you dear readers for continuing to read this site”

A year ago my life looked unimaginably bleak. At a personal and health level it was a mess and I was days away from leaving Rivington Street and t1ps the company I founded. To the victors the spoils and so it was repeatedly asserted that all t1ps’ problems were of my making and that new management was turning it around. Yes I have read the interim results released at 6PM on Friday. Hmmmm. You might say that but I could not possibly comment.

That however was a former life for me. My line in the sand was drawn in September. By then I knew who my friends were. To folks such as Richard Poulden, Abbe Aronson, Darren Atwater, Steve Moore, Clem Chambers, Monisha Varadan, Chris Potts, Amanda Van Dyke, Lucian Miers, Chris Booker and Zak Mir I am forever in your debt. To you I say “cheers” – another toast.

I chatted yesterday to most of the above and life has changed pretty dramatically. At the Real Man restaurant we were losing £5,000 a month when I took it on officially in September. There is now just one of the staff at that time still working here and I have hired and fired aggressively and made a stack of other changes. Having just enjoyed our busiest Saturday in memory we are now happily making a profit, our customers like us and we serve far better food. That was achievement one. I guess that “new management line” is true sometimes. Miaow.

Achievement two was getting the UK Investor Show organised in just a few months and it went well. Now with my friends at ADVFN we are well on track to deliver an even better show on April 5 next year. And I now rather suspect we will be the only show featuring master investors happening next spring. Miaow.

But perhaps the biggest win has been in writing. It is what I do best (although I can knock out a fantastic Risotto con salsicce e funghi these days as well). The launch of the www.shareprophets.com site has exceeded expectations. After 50 days it has half as many registered users as we managed to attract in one year at UK-Analyst. More join every day. And gratifyingly more and more writers seem to want to join the team and write for us. Another two will debut this week. Meanwhile other websites…no that is enough miaows.

But www.Tomwinnifrith.com is my real love. It started as therapy but being able to write exactly what I thought without some corporate hissy fit ensuing soon became an addictive drug. The fact that I use the odd naughty word or talk about birds does not appeal to everyone – notably Google and PR prude Kay Larsen of College Group – as you may remember here and here.

But it is me. I do use naughty words. I do find myself drifting into the vernacular of my favourite TV show (The Sweeney) now and again. And I do have strong views on Israel, welfare scroungers, the EU, global warming and civil liberties. Why hold back? I had been gagged for so long that the release was joyful and still is.

But there was also a release in that I ceased to by a City insider and became an outsider. As such there was no need to kiss arse – anyone and everyone was fair game. The past year has shown me that not only is it fun to constantly expose and poke fun and to say what you want but that I can earn a reasonable living doing that and looking after Real Man Pizza. There is no need to hold back. While I might have been tentaitive at first I am now in 5th gear and will not be slowing down or getting softer in my approach.

And so looking back I reflect on those who have brought inspiration and pleasure to me:

1. The visit to Butrint (photo article)
2. Damian Conboy of Alecto hooking up with the Playboy PR girl
3. Kay Larsen PR prude at College Hill
4. Sefton Resources & Jim Ellerton – thanks Jim you have made my year ( see you in court Bitchez)
5. Taking a contrary view on the Olympics
6. Vroula – the fascist Greek athlete and defending her right to free speech
7. The visit to the Berlin Jewish Museum
8. Standing by St Paul’s for Lady Thatcher’s funeral
9. The start of the AIM Cesspit campaign
10.Going on stage with Nigel Wray and Nick Leslau at UKInvestor show – feeling I was with friends.
11. Being complimented by the Goddess
12. The Guardian and deluded lefties everywhere
13. The Baker of Zitsa
14. Albania - National Leave your Gun at home day
15. Financial PR firms & the AIM Cesspit - another fight picked

I am sure that I have missed out a few highlights.

At a personal level, many of you met my partner at UK Investor Show. She may be an utterly deluded lefty. No okay she is an utterly deluded lefty but she has been a rock at all times. She even now knows who Joe Cole is and that Mark Noble’s veins are claret and blue. What more could a man ask for?

Thank you all for reading this website over the past year. Year two starts on Monday. What will it bring?

Best wishes

Tom Winnifrith

4191 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith GlaxoSmithKline’s cash flow gets dry rot; a bit of cash analysis

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at GlaxoSmithKline. RSS writes:

The latest information and news emerging from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is of encouragement to investors generally but to dividend investors most particularly. Although the company is one of the stock markets dividend yield staple, with a long established reputation for cash generation, a glance at the trends in its cash flow statements is a bit disconcerting. Whilst investment spending over the last three years has been rising (that includes capital expenditure) operating cash flow, the stuff that finances it (along with dividend payments to ordinary shareholders) has been declining; and significantly so, last year.

4191 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Standard Chartered: Q1 Statement creates fog of uncertainty

Standard Chartered Bank’s (STAN) Q1 statement has brought the thing that markets most particularly dislike; the fog of uncertainty. And most particularly, the un-quantified (and thus unquantifiable) kind that the analytical mind must abhor. The Q1 statement informs us in the most general way without figures or percentages (the closest we get to arithmetic, are vague references to such thing as “low/high digit” changes etc) which mean as good as nothing to the numerate, calculating analyst and reporter. For someone like the reporter and commentator on the Financial Times trying to put objective copy together, it is about as insufferably and frustrating a thing as could be imagined.

It creates the impression that either the company did not know exactly what had gone on (the least likely explanation) or knew too well and did not wish to give it more precise substance? Whatever the reason, it left commentators without scope for analytical exploration and explanation?

4191 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Sainsbury: a respectable relative 2012 performance suggests dividend growth ahead

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at J Sainsbury. RSS writes:

Another year, another buck! Sainsbury’s year to the 16^th of March was helpful and modest. Sales revenue grew by 4.6% to the £25,632 million of turnover which makes it the UK’s third largest retailer. Reported pre-tax profits fell by 1.4% to £788 million; a result which is perhaps on the verge of the “highly commendable” when you gloomily contemplate what was happening to the British consumer’s spending power and the state of economic activity generally. Basic reported earnings per share rose by 1.9% to 32.6p. However, the estimated underlying earnings (the version used by institutional analysts to enable them to compare one year with another on a consistent basis when reporting to financial institutions) actually increased by 9.3% although the consistent figure was lower at 30.7p. The dividend was raised by an above inflation 3.7% to 16.7p. In everyday stock market terms, that means that Sainsbury shares at a share price of 380p (last seen) are valued on a just reported historic price to underlying earnings ratio of 12.3 times and a dividend yield of 4.4% with a respectable dividend earnings cover of 1.8 times.

4191 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: HSBC Q1 Results not a bad capital play

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at HSBC. RSS writes:

The two big relative attractions of HSBC (HSBA) as a bank are its recent historic steadfast holding to its culture and its subsequent capital strength. The culture enabled it to steer the ship without tax payer help through the storm of the banking crisis. It also persuaded the US Justice Department to keep a recent fine it imposed of $1.3 billion for money laundering, at the lower end of what was allowable, because it concluded HSBC management had the right attitude. No need, as at Barclays, for an internal moral rearmament campaign to return it to a more overtly ethical approach to business in the new post Bob Diamond world. At HSBC it seems to have survived like DNA in the corporate fibre.

4209 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith on Q1 Results from Legal & General

The Legal & General (LGEN) share price is at the top of its game and the top of its trend pathway. It has risen 55% over a year in which the FTSE100 rose by only 16%. That gives scope for the share price to fall back again on profit taking. In Q1 the wind was decidedly in the Company’s favour. And the quarterly reports of insurance companies like winds are variable too. If you wish to by L&G shares for dividend yield, I dare to suggest that you may get a higher one in due course at a lower price.

It is the maturity of its more traditional UK markets as well as the catatonic state of the UK economy that is propelling the Legal & General to search for expansion in the business of fund management services both in the UK and internationally. Legal & General’s first quarter results were strikingly indicative of that

4210 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Admiral Group: A Yield of 6.9% enough?

Despite the above average gambling aspect of its unusual business model and payout policy, my instinct is to add the shares to my ‘shares for buying list’, on the limited ground (not too hasty I trust) of first quarter trading; the explicit confirmation of continuing financial strength and an estimated ‘super normal’ prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

4210 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith on BAT Industries- a last gasp or a final draw

4221 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - is AstraZeneca a buy after Q1 numbers?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at AstraZeneca. RSS writes:

With the first quarter’s results from Astra Zeneca (AZN) the curtain has gone up for the first act of what we all know will be a tough and difficult year; a stock market version of Gounod’s Faust but with a happier ending we trust. At least that is what the market expects to judge from the fact that the share price has risen some ten per cent from since the introduction and appointment of the new Chief Executive (whose name almost rhymes with Poirot) and his plan plus the fact the share price did not fall significantly on their publication - ending down 4.5p on the day to 3321p a share. His plan is to transform the company from its co-operative, external economy dividend favouring model, back to the drug discovery orthodoxy of more internally funded research and development; leaving the question hanging in the air about whether the company can increase internal R&D spending while at the same time maintain and increase dividends?

4222 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith Bearish on Barclays

Two seasons have arrived simultaneously: Spring, and the reporting season for Banks. The bank’s first quarter figures have been delivered along with some cheerful late arrived sunshine. In the real world of long delayed warmth and sun, things suddenly seem wonderfully natural and uncomplicated to the average, well adjusted, individual feeding his mossy lawn. Daffodils are daffodils and cherry blossom is cherry blossom. “Oh to be in England…etc.”

For the investor in banks life is not so natural, beautiful or straight forward.

4243 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore on Halfords

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his analysis of Halfords. Steve writes...

Leading UK automotive and leisure products and services retailer Halfords (HFD) has today updated on the close of its financial year ended 29^th March 2013. Shares in this FTSE 250 constituent have recovered from 189p they hit in July of last year to a current 330p and the following updates on whether value looks to remain…

4243 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore on Oxford Instruments

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his analysis of Oxford Instruments. Steve writes...

I previously commented on Oxford Instruments (OXIG), the first technology business to be spun out from Oxford University over fifty years ago and now a FTSE 250 business designing, supplying and supporting high-technology tools and systems for the research and industrial sectors, following a trading update in February. I concluded that the outlook appeared attractive but that with the shares at 1,726p – capitalising the company at £982 million – it looked better to wait for a lower entry point. Following another trading statement today, the following updates…

4245 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

America, or at least its coastal region around the Gulf of Mexico – which was unfortunately flooded with crude oil from a BP platform a year or so ago – may be a land of dreams over the rainbow; but they are not necessarily pleasant dreams as BP – like Dorothy and her little do Toto from the “Wizard of Oz” which I watched with my grand-daughter over the weekend – are finding out. It is curious that the tin man in the film is made out of old oil drums and oil cans. But is BP “Dorothy” who eventually gets back to normality, or the “tin man” without a heart who does not?

4248 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith on supermarkets group William Morrison

I can remember when William Morrison (MRW) was once the most fashionable share in the food retailing sector. Not only fashionable, but exotic too; an emergent hitherto unknown northern kind of retailer, that was culturally different; more direct and tougher than softer southern food retailers like the then Tesco and Sainsbury. In stock market terms it was a bit like one of the heroes from one of those gritty fifties novels set in the north like ‘This Sporting Life’ and the ‘Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner’. I seem to recall that Morrison’s brought the concept of ‘bogof’ to our shopping reality. William Morrison was at the no nonsense, cutting edge; retailing with a Yorkshire accent. It was highly rated as I recall, because it was a growth business as it pushed into the deep south of gentrified food and grocery demand.

But things have changed. Morrison is out of fashion in the food retailing sector now

4249 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore on Cable & Wireless Communications

Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC), the FTSE 250 full-service communications business, has announced the completion of the disposal of the majority of its Monaco & Islands division. The following updates on this and reviews the outlook here…

4251 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore on Telecom Plus - trading statement

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his analysis of Telecom Plus. Steve writes...

I previously commented on FTSE 250 integrated supplier of utility services in the UK, Telecom Plus (TEP) in February – noting that I expected the company to continue driving earnings, cash generation and dividends forward in the coming years and that, at 980p, the patient, long-term investor should still earn a decent return from there. Following a trading statement today, the shares are currently 1030p and the following updates…

4255 days ago

Interquest – Time to bank profits and sell

My July 2006 share tip on t1ps.com (the site I founded in 2000 and edited until last September) of shares in AIM listed specialist IT recruitment group, InterQuest (LSE:ITQ) is not one which has covered me in glory. Having tipped the shares at 67.5p, they traded above 80p until economic conditions darkened in the second quarter of 2008. A low of 30.5p was hit in February 2009 and the shares again traded at sub 35p in August of last year.

But to be fair to me I did suggest an aggressive average down at 45.5p

4256 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Electrocomponents

Shares in Electrocomponents plc (ECM), a FTSE 250 international distributor of electronics and maintenance products, have recovered from early 2009 lows of 117.5p to a current 251p, though it has not been a smooth ride. The shares actually reached more than 290p by mid 2011 but traded only a little above 200p in early December 2012 before recovering to their current level. The following updates on the valuation post a trading update from the company for its year ending 31^st March 2013…

4257 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on heavy director buying at Cable & Wireless

Yesterday Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC), the FTSE 250 Caribbean and Panama focused provider of mobile, broadband, fixed line, pay TV, data centre and hosting, carrier and managed services to customers including consumers, businesses and governments, announced the latest in a developing number of director share purchases. The following updates…

4258 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on KCOM Group

KCOM Group (KCOM), the Hull-based, UK focused communications company has, like many of the current FTSE 250 constituents, enjoyed very strong share price growth over the last four or so years. However, with the shares having reached more than 85p in September 2012, they fell back to sub 70p in November but have since recovered to trade at a current 82p. The following reviews the value proposition post a trading update from the company last month

4258 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - is AstraZeneca a buy?

The new CEO of Astra Zeneca Pascal Soirot (which scans with Hercule Poirot very nicely) made his promised presentation on the strategy for returning the company to profits and earnings growth on Thursday 21 March. He appeared to do that with some degree of credibility because the share price was marked up the next day. I am also delighted to see that along with the presentation on how he plans to get profits growing he had a comment on dividends. Basically, the company says that ordinary dividends will not be an automatic function of an individual year’s earnings but rather will reflect expectations about growth. I think it is worth a direct quote

4259 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Diploma

Diploma plc (DPLM) is another FTSE 250 constituent which has seen its shares rise significantly since troughing in early 2009. They have recovered from lows then of 92.25p to a current 579.5p and, following a trading update, the following reviews whether there remains value in this supplier of specialised technical products and services to the Life Sciences, Seals and Controls industries, with its principal operating businesses located in the UK, Germany, US, Canada and Australia…

4259 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Buy United Utilities for Yield

The water company United Utilities (UU.) whose equity has a £4.8 billion market capitalization has caught my attention for three reasons. First, at 709p, it has a useful historic dividend yield of 4.6%; second the share price has come close to its trend support line; third the company has just produced a well-received trading statement which put the shares better on the day.

4259 days ago

Shanta – time to call it quits?

Shares in AIM listed Tanzania gold miner Shanta Gold (LSE:SHG) have not covered me in glory. It has not been a disastrous share tip but it would be a lie to say that the stock has flown. I did have hopes of lift off as the shares reached 24p in January but today they sit at 18.375p, a stock becalmed in a sector unloved. Does that mean that it is time to call it quits?

Steve Moore and I first recommended these shares at 21.5p in July 2011 back in our days on t1ps.com and the journey since has been far from smooth. My first post tips analysis was still a bullish one and much of what I said then still stands today – you can see that analysis here.

Admittedly

4262 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: Euromoney Institutional Investor – a eurozone-type growth outlook?

This company has an apt name given continuing Eurozone uncertainties, highlighted in recent days by the economic travails of Cyprus. It is however a media and events group focussed primarily on the international finance, metals and commodities sectors which derives more than a third of revenues from emerging markets and with main offices in London, New York, Montreal and Hong Kong. Like the FTSE 250 index, of which it is a member, shares in the company have risen significantly since the market despair of four years ago but, at the time of writing, trade just over 3% down on the day, at 900p (capitalising it at £1.13 billion), post a trading update. The following reviews…

4262 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore - Is Supergroup Super at all?

Shares in now FTSE 250 constituent SuperGroup plc (SGP), the international fashion company and owner of the ‘Superdry’ brand, have been strongly on and then off- trend since they joined the stock market in March 2010. The shares listed at 500p and today trade at 600p – but have in between seen highs of more than 1800p (February 2011) and a low of 264.5p (June 2012). The following reviews the current position…

4263 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Bae set for shock dividend cut?

4263 days ago

Aureus Mining – Not Out but Certainly down

Shares in AIM and Canada listed Aureus Mining (LSE:AUE) trade higher today at 40p post the company’s 2012 results release and an update on financing for the company’s New Liberty gold project in Liberia. However, the shares are still well below the 57.25p at which I called them a post t1ps sell in November.

I wrote about the company three times in November as it was flushed out on a cash call and my detailed analysis has proven pretty much bang on the money

4264 days ago

Guest post: Steve Moore sell Greggs

Shares in Greggs plc (GRG), the FTSE 250 leading bakery retailer in the UK with more than 1,670 retail outlets throughout the land, at the time of writing trade more than 6% lower today at 492p. This follows the company’s release of results for its year to 29^th December 2012. The following reviews the results and outlook for the company from here…

4264 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Close Bros: something in the City with yield

As a result of a long and recent history and despite the fact that London is a uniquely large banking and financial services centre, the investor has not got many conventional banking equity investment targets at the moment. Fortunately, that does include two banks HSBC and Standard and Chartered Bank, which remained sufficiently true to their banking inheritances to come through the great banking collapse without government assistance to provide UK investors with a direct means of investing in the growing Asian Pacific economies.

4265 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Domino's Printing

Domino Printing Sciences (DNO), a provider of printing technologies which enable organisations internationally to meet regulatory or commercial information requirements, is another FTSE-250 constituent which has enjoyed a strong share price run – a current 700p share price comparing to 136.5p hit in November 2008 and 583p at which the shares commenced 2013. This inks the question; does there remain value here? Post a trading update, the following reviews this…

4266 days ago

Guest share tip: Robert Sutherland Smith - buy Centrica for yield

4266 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on JD Wetherspoon

Interim results for the 26 weeks ended 27^th January 2013 from J D Wetherspoon (JDW), the FTSE 250 owner and operator of pubs throughout the UK, showed a 10% increase in revenue and 6.9% increase in like-for-like sales. However, adjusted earnings per share were just 3% up and underlying profitability was actually a few percent lower. The following examines this performance and reviews the investment proposition here…

4266 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Fenner PLC

Shares in Fenner plc (FENR), a FTSE 250 conveying and advanced engineered products provider, have recovered strongly from 33.75p March 2009 lows to currently trade at 419.5p. However, they trade comfortably below their level of a year ago – having hit 483.7p in March 2012. The following reviews the value proposition at current levels

4267 days ago

Guest Share tip: Robert Sutherland Smith buy J Sainsbury for yield

In the chemical filing cabinet that serves that as my memory, I had evidently misfiled Sainsbury under the heading ‘no dividend interest’; presumably nudged by another memorized observation that Sainsbury has been handsomely outperforming William Morrison and Tesco – which I have also recently reviewed as a dividend paying candidate. The truth is of course that Sainsbury is notably well qualified to serve as an above average dividend yielder. So I have looked at the situation to see what Lord Sainsbury’s store has to offer by way of useful dividend income.

The Lord Sainsbury thing is a little joke of mine which I like to share with the bemused staff at my local Sainsbury when I send my personal regards through them to Lord Sainsbury.

4269 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on the yield at Standard Life

I willingly confess that I have generally found little difficulty in resisting past temptations to take a keen interest in Standard Life (SL.). Life assurance and annuities, the traditional focus of this two hundred year old company, are not the most exciting or fastest moving business activity in the world. That fact combined with the dry as dust name ‘Standard Life’ has invariably – by which I mean without variation – presented a cocktail of too dull a prospect to greet with of warm enthusiasm.

What life has ever been standard and who would wish it so? A name that is a negation of language and the constipation of linguistic imagination. But one which – putting the other case – fully conveys the attributes essential in a business concerned with the scientific measurement of and accounting for group human mortality in relation to the calculation of premiums and benefits for life assurance and pension annuities. Surely, was there not somebody on the occasion of its christening in some boardroom long ago, who felt an instinctive urge to giggle nervously and ask, “surely, we are not calling it Standard Life, are we? “

4270 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on the Aviva dividend cut ( still a buy)

4271 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on ITE Group

Shares in ITE Group (ITE), the FTSE 250 CIS, Turkey and increasingly India, South East Asia and China focused trade exhibitions and conferences organiser, have been strong recent performers – a current 279p share price up from 183.5p hit in November 2012 and 246.3p at which the shares commenced 2013. The following reviews the investment proposition here…

The company most recently updated in an AGM trading statement at the end of January – noting that “trading has been in line with management expectations for the first three months (to 31st December 2012) of the financial year” and that “current sales represent circa 66% of current market expectations which is consistent with our long-term average of bookings at this stage of the group’s financial year”. The balance sheet was noted to remain strong – with net cash at 24th January of approximately £16 million.

4271 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on Admiral – is a 7.1% yield too good to be true?

There is something of the Sound of Music about the Admiral Group (ADM) dividend yield; pleasing but too good to be true? A version of the world not as we realistically understand it! Earnings are to Admiral what heavy curtains were to the singing children’s governess; something she used to the most useful extent by turning curtain drapes into children’s clothes. In Admiral’s case they have turned all – or almost all – of its 2012 earnings into dividends; a policy wholly untypical of most publicly quoted companies. Both choices are idiosyncratic but also, infuriatingly, examples ‘out of the box’ practical utilitarian logic. Just as the chorus of nuns sing “How do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down”, so investors might murmur, something similar about the dividend policy of the Admiral Group.

It is decidedly unusual for a company to distribute nearly all its earnings as dividends. Particularly so when its balance sheet reveals that 97% of the shareholder equity of £443 million is made up of retention’s

4272 days ago

Guest post: Steve Moore on Imagination Technologies

Imagination Technologies (IMG), the FTSE 250 technology chip designer, has updated on trading since its 31^st October 2012 half year-end. At a current 550p, the shares are massively ahead of their 33.25p November 2008 lows but down on the in excess of 700p they reached in March and April of 2012. The following reviews the company’s trading update and whether the current share price represents value…

4272 days ago

Guest Share tip: Robert Sutherland Smith on Legal & General

The great issue surrounding insurance has been, as with the banks, one of capital adequacy: do they have enough capital to sustain and carry out their contractual obligations? That has been an overriding preoccupation for European insurance industry regulators. But regulation and the things that are regulated are as a moving feast or moving goal posts on unlevel playing fields. Most recently, the regulators have been worrying about those insurance companies that have been giving guarantees to customers. One recalls what that kind of thing did to an even once older insurance company, the late and august Equitable Life, which was ordered by the High Court to pay up on promises made contractually. It has been made known that a small number of insurers are under the regulatory eye in that respect.

And that has prompted a guessing game about which underwriters may be capitally challenged on that score, with dour implications for dividends for the most challenged. The recent cut in the Royal Sun dividend was both a surprise and a shock to the market. So viewing insurance as a game of musical chairs, the market has been watching to see which of them would be left without a chair.

4273 days ago

Guest share tip: Steve Moore on Anite

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his analysis of tech stock Anite. Steve writes...

Shares in Anite plc (AIE), a FTSE 250 constituent and provider of testing systems to the wireless market and reservation and e-commerce solutions to the leisure travel industry, at the time of writing trade more than 16% down on today, at 130p, following the company’s release of an update covering the period from 1^st November to 8^th March. The shares are still significantly ahead on late 2008 lows of sub 21p and sub 94p at the start of 2012, but does today’s move provide an opportunity? The following reviews this…

4273 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - is Pearson a buy?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Pearson.

Pearson’s (PSON) results for calendar 2012 have returned its accounting for the layman to an even greater inscrutability than that which it enjoyed years ago, when it was an extraordinary, almost eclectic collection of activities ranging from publishing to oil; a bit like going back from the renaissance to the dark ages. Investors cannot rely on the statutory accounts because they, in their matter of fact way, give a misleading impression of change. For illumination, the management provides adjusted and underlying figures to chart the changing dynamics of a changing business in a changing world. In that, we are entirely in their hands although they have to satisfy the sniffing, close probing finger jabbing attention of institutional analysts and fund managers.

4275 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Dialight

Dialight plc (DIA), a FTSE 250 constituent focused on solid state lighting technology for industrial application, traffic and obstruction signals and components for status indication and residual disconnect components for automotive and niche industrial application, last week announced results for the 2012 calendar year. These have helped the shares – up from only just over 100p late 2008 lows – further higher; from a 1,165p close prior to the results announcement to a current 1,300p. Capitalising the company at approaching £418 million, the following reviews the results and the value on offer here

4276 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland buy HSBC for yield

HSBC (HSBA) performed strongly throughout the great banking collapse of the first decade, of the twenty first century like a good deed in a naughty world by hanging on to much of its custom, practice and culture, when other banks were swapping their dull conservative garb for emperor’s new clothes. Chief amongst the traditions kept by HSBC was a miserly Scottish grip on capital. A lucky break for HSBC shareholders and a lucky break for UK tax payers. In the bankers’ gospel does it says: ‘blessed are they who employ sufficient capital for they shall inherit the earth’. And that is pretty much what we see in these results for the year to 31 December 2012.

4276 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore Buy Invensys

Invensys plc (ISYS) is a current FTSE 250 constituent and provider of market-leading software, systems and equipment that optimise operational performance for a broad range of industrial and commercial customers, rail operators and appliance manufacturers. It does so via three divisions – Operations Management, Rail and Controls. However, in November the company announced a proposed £1.742 billion disposal of its rail business to Siemens to create “a more focused industrial software, systems and control equipment group with a significant exposure to higher growth and higher margin segments and the resources to invest in them”. Following a further update from the company earlier this year, the following is my view…

4276 days ago

Minera IRL - is it worth hanging on for the bounce?

Shares in AIM, Canada and Peru listed Minera IRL (LSE:MIRL) commenced 2013 at more than 50p but currently trade down at 43p – capitalising this Latin America focused gold miner at just below £75 million. This has not been one of my greatest tip from my t1ps.com days (I tipped it at 69p) so what to do now.

4277 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - Buy BAT Industries

My previous article, RIP an old friend had at least one reader worrying about Robert Sutherland Smith given that he started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BAT Industries. His introduction is a cracking one.

Belonging to a generation of children who smoked Turf cigarettes on London bombed sites to collect the cards of famous film stars and whose culturally formative involvement with cigarettes was through the allure of films like the Maltese Falcon I start this review to camera – as they say. I gazed at the results from the British American Tobacco Company for the year to 31 December 2012 and groaned. I flung my Humphrey Bogart fedora – slightly battered – onto the hook on the wall and stared again; sales revenue down 1.4%? I groaned again and took a Lucky Strike (brand sales up 11%) from the pack in the top pocket of my shirt and lit up. Below that top line sales figure, things had suddenly got a whole lot better; operating profit up 20%; net income up 24%. But were they legit? They were after all only the ‘statutory’ figures demanded by Federal busy bodies and others. As if by some kind of slow motion Hollywood magic, through a haze of imaginary Lucky Strike tobacco smoke, the truer adjusted figures emerged dream like – as they might in an old black and white movie.

4280 days ago

Impellam 962.5 per cent ahead on my share tip ( plus dividends) – is it time to bank gains?

Impellam Group (LSE: IPEL), an AIM-listed staffing and outsourced support services provider in the UK and North America, with smaller operations in Australia, Ireland, New Zealand and mainland Europe is a big success from my time at t1ps – Steve Moore and I tipped it at 40p in September 2009. I published a note saying that the stock was still a buy at 315p in December of last year. After results for the company’s year ended 28th December 2012, released last week, the shares now trade at 425p. You see, Steve and I do get the odd tip right and we will be serving up another hot prospect on our new Nifty Fifty website later this week.

4284 days ago

Medusa Mining Buy at 300p – target 400p

London and Australia-listed, Philippines-focused gold producer Medusa Mining (LSE: MML) is a top multi-bagging share tip from my past life at t1ps and I commented that I again thought the shares were cheap in an article last month. Following recent interim results, the following is my current take…

4285 days ago

Guest post Steve Moore: Halma a Safety First Investment

Halma plc (HLMA), a FTSE 250 constituent and safety, health and environmental technology group – with products including fire detectors, access control sensors, medical devices and environmental analysis instruments – updated earlier this month that it “expects adjusted profit for the full year to be in line with market expectations” and that it has “maintained strong returns and achieved good cash generation, which provide us with the financial capacity for further acquisitions and investment”. However, this is another shares in which have risen strongly recently, as the FTSE 250 index has. With the shares up from March 2009 lows of 143.2p and 330.4p at the start of 2012, the following reviews whether value remains at the current 493p, which capitalises this company at £1.86 billion…

4285 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Imperial Tobacco: An Outstanding Dividend Buy

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Imperial Tobacco.

As an arithmetically and financially attractive income share, Imperial Toboacco (IMT) or “Imps” looks to be an outstanding buy at 2344p. Here is why. There are in fact two reasons – Imps is the object of two very distinct investing perspectives.

The most recent, is that of speculative interest on press stories about Imperial (as in old, a long vanished British Empire Singapore) Tobacco being acquired by a Japanese (as in the land of the rising sun) tobacco company. For that, investors want the lowest dividend yield to exit on. The second traditional investment interest in Imperial Tobacco has focused on its high dividend yield and its ability to grow dividends.

4286 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Aveva

AVEVA Group plc (AVV), a FTSE 250 engineering software provider, has, like its index, enjoyed a good recent re-rating – the shares up from 465p 2009 lows and 1,430p at the start of 2012 to a present 2,300p – this capitalising the company at a current £1.57 billion. After a trading update at the end of last month, the following asks whether there remains value on offer here…

4287 days ago

Pond Life with Robert Sutherland Smith (February Edition)

My old ( very old) friend from t1ps.com Robert Sutherland Smith continues his monthly column dreamt up while taking an early morning swim on Hampstead Heath… Pond Life.

There is nothing better at about 7am on a raw February morning, when flurries of snow in the air are driven hither and thither by a hectoring easterly wind coming across the North Sea from somewhere south of the Ural Mountains, than to make your way to the ponds for a winter dip. Thankfully, it is not that cold this morning; only three degrees above freezing. Almost sub tropical compared with some days. You enter the enclosed compound to find that a few other sturdy fellows are already undressing; hanging their winter cloths on cold metal hooks. They stand there in the poor light of an early winter dawn, white as flour; more like spirits from another plane or dimension than living, breathing beings from north London before the working day.

What is this urge to plunge into forbidding steel grey waters on such a day – or indeed almost any day in an English winter?

4287 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: Oxford Instruments – making a noise in the nanotechnology space

Oxford Instruments (OXIG), a provider of high technology tools and systems for industry and research, was the first technology business to be spun out from Oxford University and is now a FTSE 250 constituent. It has become so as it has successfully innovated to become a leading provider of new generation tools and systems, with the shares having risen from little more than 100p in March 2009 to currently trade at 1,726p – capitalising the company at £982 million. Following a trading update earlier this month, the following reviews whether there remains value on offer here…

4291 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Tullow Oil Trading Update

I commented on Tullow Oil (TLW) earlier this month as the FTSE 100 oil and gas explorer and producer announced results for calendar 2012. In that analysis I noted the company’s 2012 discovery of a new oil basin in Kenya and its highly ambitious 2013 exploration programme and the company has today updated on its East Africa exploration and appraisal. With the shares currently trading at 1,227p, I review this in the following…

4291 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Drax pleases the market, but is off the high dividend tariff

So that old fashioned (in scale) and very British (Yorkshire) non global business of supplying the 7% of the UK’s electricity has, as part of the price of converting half its highly efficient coal fired electricity generation capacity, to the generation of electric power from biomass – mainly imported, fast growing replaceable timber – is off the stock market’s higher end dividend tariff. Before its results for last year to 31st December 2012, on a then share price of 609p, the published dividend yield for Drax (DRX) was 4.3%. That was then this is now.

4292 days ago

Guest share tip: Steve Moore on The Innovation Group

The Innovation Group (TIG), a fully-listed, global provider of business process outsourcing and software solutions for accident management, repair and estimation and claims management, has updated that it “is confident that the group’s performance is on track to meet its expectations for the current financial year”. Shares in the company, whose clients include the likes of Aviva, AXA, RSA, Ford, Toyota and Zurich, have risen from 3.45p end 2008 and 18.25p 2012 lows to a current 24.75p – capitalising the group at now more than £241 million. The following reviews a 15th February 2013 trading update and the value these shares now offer…

4293 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: EMIS Group – Exacting Market Impeding Shares?

Shares in EMIS Group (EMIS), a leading UK supplier of clinical software and related services to GP practices and other healthcare practitioners and a major software supplier to high street pharmacies, commenced 2013 at more than 900p but fell more than 16.5% (to 750p) on 24th January as the company reported “lower than planned revenues from the Australian defence contract, training and integrated care services. Group adjusted operating profit is expected to be marginally below analysts’ expectations, largely as a result of the accelerated staff and recruitment costs associated with the EMIS Web roll out and the slight revenue shortfalls highlighted above”. The shares have further declined since to trade at a current 650p, capitalising this AIM-listed company at £380.5 million. The following analyses whether this current, lower level represents value…

‘EMIS Web’ is the company’s ‘next generation’ clinical software system which enables GPs and other healthcare practitioners to connect with each other and securely share access to patients’ electronic health record. An accelerated roll out of this is noted to be “proceeding to plan”, whilst RX Systems, the group’s community pharmacy division, is “delivering a strong performance”. The company added the sum result is that group revenues for 2012 are expected to be not less than £86 million, with year-end net cash of £7.7 million.

4293 days ago

Guest blog post: Steve Moore on Phoenix IT

Phoenix IT Group (PNX), a fully-listed IT services company to UK enterprises, updated last week (13th February 2013) that it “currently believes the Group’s EBITDA for the year to 31 March 2013 will be around 10% below market expectations, but is encouraged by an improving order book and pipeline”. Having traded at more than 230p in 2012 and commenced 2013 at 184p, the shares presently trade at 157p, capitalising the company at £118.3 million. In light of the ‘improving order book and pipeline’, the following reviews whether there is value on offer here…

The update revealed that the group’s annual contract value (£194.3 million) and order book (£322.2 million) at the end of calendar 2012 were both improved on the positions at the end of the prior quarter (£187.7 million and £284.6 million respectively). However, it added that some slippage in current work has been experienced and that the company “remains cautious about its short term financial performance”.

4294 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - buy SSE for a near 6% yield

There are two things about energy supplier SSE Plc (it was until recently known as Scottish and Southern Electricity – which used to prompt thoughts of hairy highlanders incongruously tossing cables at a vicarage lawn tea party presided over by Miss Marples) which makes its shares a good dividend income play. But also, a share with some potential for long term capital appreciation relative to the FTSE 100 Index.

Firstly, SSE is explicitly committed to one over-riding objective investor objective which makes it noteworthy as an equity; that is, its proclaimed mission to increase its dividend payout by 2% more than the rate of inflation measured by the Retail Price Index. Chairman, Lord Smith of Kelvin (mysteriously a Kelvin being a unit of temperature movement) has explicitly confirmed that goal.

4297 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Wales based IQE

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty websital but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a piece he has published on Wales based IQE – natch I agree with him Steve writes…

Shares in AIM-listed IQE plc (IQE), a manufacturer and supplier of bespoke semiconductor wafers to the major chip manufacturing companies, which then use them to make the chips which form the key components of high technology systems, were recommended on the Nifty Fifty website in December at a 28.5p offer price and I also wrote them up last month on the One Free ShareTip offering with the shares then at 34.25p. Now at 35.75p – 36p, meaning a market cap of more than £230 million, the following reviews the investment case here…

4298 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Entertainment One – a potential blockbuster?

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a piece he has published on Entertainment One. Steve writes…

Entertainment One (ETO), the London main market listed producer and distributor of film and television content, has updated that “full year earnings are anticipated to be in line with management’s expectations” on underlying revenue up 11% in the 10 month period to end January. The shares have risen from a 13.5p low hit in the depths of the markets 2009 despair to a current 188p. They did however trade above 200p in late 2011/early 2012 and, with a present market cap in excess of £500 million, the following offers my current take here…

4298 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith is worried about Barclays

The market response to the Barclay’s 2012 figures and accompanying strategic review out to 2015 was good enough to suggest that the Quakers had returned to run the fallen bank to restore those long lost standards of Quaker ethics, which had once prompted customers to beat a pathway to the bank’s door. No Quaker would have fiddled Libor. But in their absence (assuming that he is not in fact a Quaker) Barclay’s new Chief Executive, Antony Jenkins, was the next best thing.

He does a splendid job invoking a new moral high ground to which Barclay’s employees, drowning in ‘they don’t get it’ public opprobrium, may now swim. It was emphatic moral re-armament. The words ‘respect’, ‘integrity’, ‘service’ and ‘stewardship’ were picked up, recorded and reported by scribbling journalists. A job well done! But can words alone change the bank’s more recent culture of error when investment banking will continue to be such a big part of the bank’s business?

4299 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: Tullow Oil – 2012 Results Analysis

Tullow Oil (TLW), the FTSE 100 oil and gas explorer and producer, has released calendar 2012 results which it emphasises are “in line with market expectations”, with a “balance sheet substantially strengthened through debt re-financing and $2.9 billion from Uganda farm-down”. The shares have responded favourably – currently trading higher at 1,235p, capitalising the company at £11.2 billion. The following reviews the results announcement…

4299 days ago

Densitron Profits warning – Not good

Densitron Technologies (DSN), the AIM-listed electronic displays company has served up a rather nasty profits warning, leaving the shares trading at 7.625p valuing the company at just £5.3 million. I recommended this stock on t1ps.com, the site I founded and edited for 12 years until this September delivering an average gain of 42.7% over 241 share tips before leaving to set up The Nifty Fifty. The t1ps share tip was at 11.75p in December 2010 since when 6p has been paid out in dividends (including one special 5p payment) so as disasters go this was no total disaster. But the speed of the backtrack at Densitron is not pleasing.

4300 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: NCC Group – continuing growth through Negating Cybersecurity Concerns?

NCC Group (NCC) is a fully-listed, international, information security company. It provides its services from two divisions – ‘Escrow’ (acting as an independent party between a supplier and end-user, with NCC’s specialists meaning it is able to minimise the risks of the use of external software to the end-user whilst also protecting the intellectual property of the supplier) and ‘Assurance’ (IT testing, monitoring and compliance). Having fallen to little more than 45p at the market depths of early 2009, the shares recovered strongly to hit approaching 166p in October 2012. Currently trading at 142.5p – capitalising the company at approaching £296 million – following results for its six months ended 30th November 2012, the following reviews the current investment proposition here…

4300 days ago

Guest post: Zak Mir says EMED to jump from 13p to 20p

Of course all charting/ technical analysis is hogwash but now and again I humour my old pal Zak Mir by bringing you a snippet of his work. On EMED my target price is 38p but Zak seems to think the shares should race ahead to 20p. That would be a start. Here is his share tip – not from t1ps.com natch.

As can be seen from the daily chart of EMED Mining over the past couple of years, we have been treated very rough ride terms of the noisy price action. But the most painful part of the journey could be described as that seen this time last year when the stock jumped from below 8p up to 16p and then back again. It could be argued that for Bulls of the stock to have survived that kind of experience, really would underline their loyalty / blind faith as far as the company is concerned. At least on the back of the early 2012 white knuckle ride it is evident how since May last year despite all the volatility, a rising trendline has been put in place by the shares one that currently runs level with the key 200 day moving average at 10p.

Indeed, the most obvious thing to do is to draw a parallel trendline to this multi-tested 2011′s support line in order to discover what the likely upside here could be – a likely 2 to 3 month price target at 20p for the stock. Indeed, it may be achieved even sooner than this suggested timeframe as yesterday’s 13p low at former post-July resistance remains in place as the fresh support for the stock.

4301 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BT

4301 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Telecom Plus

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty websital but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a piece he has published on Telecom PLus ( I agree with his conclusion, natch). Steve writes…

Telecom Plus (TEP), which trades as the Utility Warehouse and supplies a range of utility services (gas, electricity, fixed line telephony, mobile telephony and broadband internet) to both residential and business customers in the UK, has updated that a “continuing strong performance” means it remains “confident of reporting full year profits in line with current consensus market expectations”. The shares trade at 980p on the back of the announcement and are up from sub 300p on a three year view and from sub 650p on a one year view. With a market cap now of approaching £700 million, the following reviews whether there looks to remain value in the shares…

4304 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on S&U

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty websital but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a piece he published on S&U (provider of credit to council house dwelers) today. The Nifty Fifty editorial team feel pretty good about this share tip so far. Steve writes…

Shares in fully-listed S&U plc (SUS) were added to the Income portfolio of the Nifty Fifty offering at an 839.5p offer price in November. Following a positive year-end trading statement today, they currently trade up at 960p, capitalising this home credit and motor finance provider throughout England, Wales and Scotland at approaching £113 million. The following reviews today’s announcement and asks whether there remains value here…

4305 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP in light of its latest trading statement.

Writing here on January 6th I concluded that a charge of ‘gross negligence’ against BP in regard to the continuing judicial saga of the case against BP for its role in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, was made less likely by a guilty plea to negligence from the sub-contractor oil well operator Trans Ocean. I added that, that such a helpful outcome might not represent the last word on BP’s outstanding liability; the ways of lawyers being wondrous. And so it has come to pass, something we learned more about as as part of a 2012 trading statement published on February 5th.

4305 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Ocado

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty product but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a piece he published on Ocado today. Both Lucian Miers and I agree with his conclusion.

Shares in Ocado Group (OCDO), the FTSE-250 online grocer, have jumped higher today on the back of its announcement of results for the 53 weeks ended 2nd December 2012. However, with the shares at a current 115p, capitalising the company at more than £700 million, the following reviews today’s results and considers whether the share price run from 58.5p in November looks to have long-term legs…

The results showed an adjusted pre-tax profit of £1.8 million, from a prior year loss of £2.4 million, on comparative revenue 11% higher. However, on revenue for the 53 weeks of £678.6 million, the statutory pre-tax figure was a loss of £0.6 million as the company recorded £2.4 million of ‘exceptional items’ including “staff and other operational costs associated with the opening of Customer Fulfilment Centre 2 and a non-food distribution centre in Welwyn Garden City”.

4306 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - Buy Aviva for 7% yield

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Aviva. I have never understood insurance stocks but, as I noted, RSS is a clever chap.

I saw that an analyst somewhere had suggested that Aviva (AV.) might wish to re-base its dividend payout – a polite way of suggesting a cut. The rationalist argument for such a development, if it were to occur, might include the obvious point that new chief executives coming to a corporate debacle to sort it out, often like to put all the bad news he ( or she) can find out for public consumption to distance themselves from history and provide the lowest start base possible for the rebuilding project. It only remains to add that Mark Wilson, after a long search, was appointed the new CEO of Aviva on the 21 November and took up his appointment on 1 January this year.

4306 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Craneware Group

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty product but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his debut article elsewhere: Steve on AIM Listed tech play Craneware. I have to admit that I had never heard of this company until today but Steve is a smart guy and I trust his judgement.

Following from my piece on AIM-listed GB Group (GBG) yesterday, I today comment on a fellow AIM-listed tech stock which also updated on trading towards the end of last month; Craneware plc (CRW). Despite its name and its being incorporated and headquartered in Scotland (Edinburgh), the company is actually a software provider focused on the US healthcare market. With offices in Atlanta, Arizona, Massachusetts and Tennessee, its software helps hospitals and other healthcare providers more effectively price, charge, code and retain revenue for patient care services and supplies – increasing their efficiency and minimising compliance risk. The following reviews the company’s recent trading update and investment outlook…

4307 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore - GB Group – a Great Buy or not?

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty product but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his debut article elsewhere: Steve on AIM Listed tech play GB Group.

Shares in AIM-listed GB Group (GBG) have been strong performers over recent years – commencing 2010 trading at 21p, they currently trade at 94.25p – capitalising the company at more than £100 million. Following a trading update last week, does value remain here?

The company’s 30th January update noted that it “anticipates that the results for the year ending 31 March 2013 will be in line with current market expectations”, with both its DataAuthentication and DataSolutions businesses “trading well” and “ahead of last year”.

4308 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - AstraZeneca: asking questions of dividend policy?

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at AstraZeneca.

Whatever else, the annual results from that curiosity of the pharmaceutical sector, the Anglo-Swedish company AstraZeneca (AZN) tells us that the company’s management is thinking about dividend policy but presumably not telling us all they think. So here are my Hercule Poirot like surmises. Smoothing the waxed moustache, taking the cane from the umbrella stand and giving oneself an admiring glance in the art deco hall mirror, I mince forward, stimulating my little grey cells – such as they are – as I go.

4309 days ago

Weekend Video Postcard Number 20

As per request the weekend video postcard is back. I found my camera, my tripod and I hope that this all works well enough – damn seem to have goofed on lighting again. I am out of practice. A simple few thoughts to (re) start with & no crowing about the rugby in case Olivia watches.

On the Agenda

1. Bull versus Bear the markets debate short term
2. Longer term – what inflation must mean, a more bearish tone.
3. The dynamics of new media
4. Steve Moore, ex senior writer at t1ps.com joins me working on the Nifty Fifty – the old t1ps team is now 100% reunited on our new website
5. Leslau vs Wray with me in the middle. More on UKInvestor Show where fewer than 500 seats now remain.

4311 days ago

Randall & Quilter Trading Statement - Buy for Income

I recommended shares in AIM-listed specialist non-life insurance investor, service provider and underwriting manager, Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings (RQIH) at 127.5p in July 2011 on t1ps, the website I founded and edited for more than 12 years, delivering an average gain per tip of 42.7%, before departing last September to set up the Nifty Fifty offering. These shares have yet to really perform – but having commenced 2013 at 106p, they currently trade at 119.5p following a trading update today. The following reviews this and offers my updated view…

4311 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: National Grid Interim Management Statement: on course

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at National Grid.

A couple of weeks ago I advocated a purchase of National Grid (NG.) shares for dividend yield. This week the company published its interim management statement for the period 1 October 2012 to 28 January 2013. It seems that my reading of the runes were pretty much correct. Regulatory management is shown to be going according to plan and shows no obvious signs of not moving into an expected new dance like embrace of mutual understanding and agreement between the regulator and company for the years following 2013.

4312 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on Bae Systems

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Bae Systems.

In share price terms, BAE Systems (BA.) took off like a typhoon jet trainer from 250p in late 2011 to a recent peak of 350p. The share has thus produced £1 profit with its 40% capital gain for anyone who was brave enough to buy the shares at 250p. And it would have been a brave buy; a highly geared, pretty low margin defence contractor in times of government spending retrenchment in the UK and the US.

4314 days ago

Plastics Capital Trading Statement: Buy

I commented positively on shares in AIM-listed niche plastics products manufacturer, Plastics Capital (PLA) in September at 66p and November at 72p. This was a big winner from my days at t1ps.com. Following a trading update today which reported that the company “continues to trade broadly in line with market expectations” and that “performance should be broadly in line with expectations over the final quarter and looking into the next financial year anticipate a year of significant progress”, the shares now trade at 79.5p. The following reviews today’s announcement and offers my remoulded take on the shares (that is a bad pun BTW)

4315 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Standard Chartered – One of the better banking bets

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Standard Chartered.

What should one make of Standard Chartered Bank (STAN) at the current share price of 1665p? The price is 52% above this year’s low of 1092p (August 2012) and only 2 % below January’s peak of 1700p. Is it too late to buy? I think that despite the rise, arguably not.

4318 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on RBS ( sell)

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at RBS

What does one make of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) at 362p? Banks as objects of everyday investor curiosity seem like sealed black boxes, wrapped in heavy oil cloth placed in a screwed down drum lying at the bottom of a deep ocean. Arguably, the buying of RBS shares this last year has been more a matter of flying by the seat of the pants (a great stock market tradition which some do well some of the time) than normal calculation. Trying to work out when the share price has reached a rationally understandable investment destination is difficult; more the stuff of momentum investment and chart reads.

4319 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on AstraZeneca

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at AstraZeneca.

Astra Zeneca (AZN) is not as other pharmaceutical companies are: or rather, it was not as other pharmaceuticals are! Until last year, Astra Zeneca was operating a singular business model in which it sought to reduce R&D costs by outsourcing much of it in collaborative deals with outside companies. That left it, in theory at least, to simply generate cash with which to pay shareholders dividends or buy back their shares. The City did not buy that model and the shares sunk to a level where the yield was phenomenal. Change was needed and now, under new management, it is returning to being a more orthodox ‘big pharma’ which by convention, does a significant quantity of its molecule discovery, research and development in house – incurring the costs of such activity.

4321 days ago

Guest post Greggs: a sausage role and food for thought, says Robert Sutherland Smith

My old pal, from my 12 years at t1ps.com, Robert Sutherland Smith is a cheery old fellow (he is 157) with a dry sense of humour. A noted enthusiast for early morning swimming on Hampstead Heath I imagine that he has a few spare hours on his hands right now. Surely he cannot be swimming at present? We will all find out shortly as he starts his new monthly “Pond Life” column here on www.TomWinnifrith.com

So bored as he is he sent me a few of his thoughts on Greggs (LSE:GRG). We both like food and I am a major bear of this stock

4324 days ago

Telecom Plus: I was wrong to bank gains: Buy

Telecom Plus (TEP), now a FTSE-250 constituent, is a very successful past share tip from myself. I recommended the shares at a share price of 187.25p in January 2008 on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and ran until September when I left and set up the Nifty Fifty website. Prematurely, I banked gains at 691p in July 2011. The shares dipped below 600p that August but have since risen again, to currently trade at 975.5p, capitalising the company at more than £687 million. The following details my current view…

4325 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on Tesco

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years. at t1ps. He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. He is also going to do a monthly column for me on this blog on the subject that really interests him, life on Hampstead Heath. I am sure we all look forward to “Pond Life” – I wonder if he will be swimming this weekend? RSS today looks at Tesco. Neigh… Yes he does.

Tesco (TSCO) remains Britain’s favoured food retailer. But, at least in stockmarket terms, it has for some time been suffering the outrageous fortune epitomised by the Bard himself in his phrase about troubles when they come, coming not as single spies but in battalions. Just as we were adjusting ourselves to the company overcoming the problems of Christmas past (I refer to the trouncing they took at the hands of Sainsbury and Morrison’s in the trading period Christmas 2011) Tesco is hit by a horse burger scandal. I love the brutal market joke about what do you put on your Tesco burger? Answer; £5 each way!

Very clearly, given the importance attached to own brand retailing, the discovery that Tesco’s ‘everyday value’ beef burger was 29% horse and some pig – not Lord Emsworth’s ‘Empress’ I hope – is not without market significance

4327 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on HSBC

see reports that US Mega bank JP Morgan has this week been taken to task by regulators for its lax internal controls. For those of us who remember when banks used to be in institutions that lent money and were considered safe and dull this serves as yet another reminder that those banks with a real advantage in the new regulatory world are those with a culture for what used to be called ‘probity’; the principal stock in trade of London’s ‘joint stock’ clearing banks for much of the last century.

Barclays, under its new management, in a neo-Darwinian instinct for adaptation to the new conditions

4327 days ago

Medusa Mining: Is it time to buy again?

London and Australia listed Philippines gold producer, Medusa Mining (MML) is a top recommendation from my past. I recommended the shares on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and left in September 2012 to establish the Nifty Fifty, at 49p in August 2008 and recommended selling at 426.5p in December 2010. I noted then that a higher share price still could be achieved but that a re-appraisal of political risk and the company – as a low-cost producer – being set to benefit less in terms of operational gearing from a rising gold price than others had led me to consider the risk/reward trade-off more attractive elsewhere in the sector. The shares would go on to hit 560p in 2011 but have subsequently fallen back to trade at a current 350p share price. Perhaps it is time to buy back in?

4328 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on National Grid

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years. at t1ps. He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. He is also going to do a monthly column for me on this blog on the subject that really interests him, life on Hampstead Heath. I am sure we all look forward to “Pond Life.” RSS today looks at National Grid and starts, once again, with a touch of comedy. He is a funny chap RSS.

The observation about things being in the price is usually a prelude to the conclusion that a share price is well up with events; more than discounting prospects and one where a profit should be taken. On this occasion, in respect to that dullest of shares, the National Grid, (NG.) it means the opposite. Dull and boring, as my friend and former t1ps colleague Tom Winnifrith often says in relation to shares, is sexy. At my age I have long forgotten what he means by that but I think I get his general point and agree.

What is in the price of the shares of the great UK and US electricity transmission supply owner and operator, is a growth in dividends

4332 days ago

IQE: Placing, Trading Statement and Aquisition all look very good

On January 10th IQE, the Wales based supplier of advanced semiconductor wafer products and services IQE announced a $75 million ($60 million on completion and $15 million payable on the third anniversary of completion) acquisition, a £16.5 million placing of new shares with institutional investors at 29p each and a 2012 trading statement. Having tipped the stock at a 28.75p share price on this very website on November 19th -I am feeling rather smug as the spread is now 36.25-36.75p. Indeed I also tipped this stock at 24.5p in my days round at t1ps so I am feeling doubly smug. But there is more to come.

4335 days ago

Domino’s Pizza – Serving up a Tasty Trading Statement

Domino’s Pizza (DOM), now a FTSE-250 constituent, has been a stellar recommendation from me historically during my 12 years at t1ps.com, but I am currently nervous about the UK economy and consumer spending outlook. Does that dim my faith? Ahead of a 25th February scheduled results statement, the company has today released a trading update for its 14 and 53 weeks ended 30th December 2012. This reports that it “will deliver full year 2012 profits in line with market expectations” – but with the shares currently at 515p, capitalising the company at approaching £843 million, is this still an investable proposition? The following reviews the case…

4339 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on Barclays

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years. at t1ps He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celenrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. He is also going to do a monthly column for me on this blog on the subject that really interests him, life on Hampstead Heath. I am sure we all look forward to “Pond Life.” RSS kicks off with his take on Barclays Bank and those wicked banksters.

Because the yield is too low for a bank (in historic terms), Barclays Bank (BARC)shares are clearly viewed by the market as a ‘momentum’ stock; the elementary investment principle being, that because the shares are going up, buy some more? So good so far as it goes; but an increasingly insufficient justification as a share price rises, further discounting whatever it is the future holds. As the late, great lamented philosopher, Sam Goldwyn, taught us! ’Never make forecasts – particularly about the future!’ Had he had been alive to run the Federal Reserve Bank in the in the 1990s and not a picture studio, we might have avoided a lot of trouble.

The possibilities for banks and the banking model generally, have been given a boost with the latest results and share price performance of the Bank of America. Having been in a dreadful condition, BoA has just proved itself the best performing US bank in terms of an annual share price rise – up116% over one year

4342 days ago

My sixth 2013 tip of the year is live: a gold play for New Year's Day & Act now to get my 7th tip tomorrow with OneFreeSharetip.com

Six down one to go. I refer to my seven tips of the year for 2013. The seventh will not appear on any website but will be the first share tip on my new partnership with ADVFN, Onefreesharetip.com – sign up HERE.

It is simple – sign up for free and tomorrow you get my last share tip of the year. In the three working days that follow you get the tip of the year from each of ADVFN boss and columnist Clem Chambers, my pal Zak Mir and ex t1ps.com senior writer Steve Moore.

Thereafter every working day of the year we will send out by email a free share tip from a panel of 20 top tipsters, bloggers and analysts. Each of us serves up around one tip a month. All you need to do is sign up here
If you missed my previous six tips of the year:

On New Year’s Day my SIXTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).
On New Year’s Eve my FIFTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).
On 30th December my FOURTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).
On 29th December my 3rd share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).
On 28th December I published my second share tip of the year ( here).
The day before I published my first share tip of the year ( here).
On Boxing Day I published my macro-economic assumptions for 2013.

The only way to receive the FINAL TIP OF THE YEAR in your email is to register HERE at OneFreesharetip.com .
Go on, you know it makes sense.

Happy New Year

4350 days ago

Aquarius Platinum – A Biblical Set of Plagues survived – now the recovery?

have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment. If its own South African workers were not on strike, workers at neighbouring mines were out and engaging in secondary picketing. The prices of Platinum Group Metals fell sharply (to around $1100 for a PGM basket) and meanwhile negotiations on the sale of half of its Zimbabwean operation to local Black Economic Empowerment groups dragged on. After such an annus hornbills, long serving CEO Stuart Murray stepped down as CEO and the share price is now 55p, having been 45p three years ago. But could 2013 be a year of recovery for this company which is still valued at £260 million?

4353 days ago

Silverdell - a good share tip gets better

Shares in AIM-listed specialist remediation, decommissioning and consulting services group Silverdell (LSE SID) were recommended on t1ps at 12.75p in August, the month before I departed after more than 12 years editing that website to set up the Nifty Fifty offering. I subsequently updated you all in November, with the shares at 13.25p, concluding that they remained worth buying ahead of the announcement of results for the company’s year ended 30th September 2012. With these announced earlier this month, the share price is now 14.625p – capitalising the company at £45.8 million, and the following reviews the results and what they mean for the investment case…

4354 days ago

Domino’s Pizza – a buy ahead of results?

During my twelve years at t1ps.com I tipped fully listed Domino’s Pizza twice. The first time was in June 2001 at 62p – I advised selling at 693p in 2007 (a gain of 1018%). The next time I tipped the shares at 193p in July 2008. The share price is now 494p. Not a bad return for share tip given that there is a decent dividend stream on top. But now we face not only a Christmas trading statement * due out January 8th) but also full year numbers (for the 53 weeks to December 30th) which will be out on 25th February. I am a bit nervous about soft consumer spending, fearing that on the high street at least Christmas will be a washout. So what should one do with Domino’s which is today capitalised at £810 million.

4354 days ago

Access Intelligence: Decent Trading Update

I recommended shares in AIM-listed governance, risk and compliance software provider Access Intelligence (LSE: ACC) on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and edited until September of this year when I left to set up the Nifty Fifty offering, in November 2010 at 4.25p. They have traded briefly above 5p since but fell to lows of 2.25p a year ago, before subsequently recovering somewhat to trade at a current 3.5p share price. Following the close of the company’s year to 30th November 2012, the following reviews a trading update the company has released today and what it means for the current investment case… buy, sell or hold?

4354 days ago

The Harmonic Energy pump and dump moves up a gear – Do NOT be suckered

Last Friday one small website took money to send out a mailing about the “one stock you must buy before the new year.” Returns of 3,200% were mentioned. What the mailing mentioned only in very small print was that the mailing was paid for by a shareholder who is looking to sell shares in the market. What the mailing did not mention at all is that Harmonic (a US OTC Bulletin Board) stock also needs to raise cash as it has no money and in fact that its auditors had that day filed a statement saying that Harmonic may not be a going concern.

I had hoped that my piece would warn UK investors about this pump and dump and also deter any more list owners from taking money for promoting this filth to readers to whom they must surely feel some sense of moral obligation.

You can read my damning indictment of this company and its operation here.

I am sad to say that MoneyAM sent out the same mailing yesterday. I am sadder still that UK-Analyst (part of the t1ps.com group) sent out the same mailing today. That makes me very sad.

I make no comment about why they did this.

I merely beg you to ignore this mailing and not to buy shares in Harmonic under any circumstances.

I would also ask you to urgently pass this article on to anyone you know who does dabble in shares so that they might also be warned as to what is afoot.

For alerts on all article written by Tom Winnifrith follow him on twitter @tomwinnifrith

For a free bi-weekly newsletter with exclusive articles by Tom plus links to all his articles of that week register HERE

4355 days ago

Universe – the recovery continues

Shares in AIM-listed payment and on-line loyalty systems company, Universe Group (LSE:UNG) are an award winning disappointment of a share tip from my 12 years founding and running t1ps.com. Once again I can only apologise. However, I updated readers of this website in October – with the share price then at 2.75p – suggesting that, having already recovered from lows at the start of the year of 1.25p, there could be further recovery ahead and it was time to average down. Now at 3.75p, the following updates my view following a trading update released yesterday…

4355 days ago

Buy Impellam after Trading Update

AIM-listed staffing and outsourced support services company, Impellam (IPEL) is a big success from my time at t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and edited until September of this year when I departed to launch the Nifty Fifty offering. I recommended the shares on t1ps at a share price of 40p in September 2009. Today the stock trades at 315p valuing the company at £141 million after a trading update yesterday. This is still a great long term buy.

4356 days ago

Anglesey Mining – Labrador Update: Speculative Buy

I previously commented on fully-listed Anglesey Mining (LSE: AYM) late last month – concluding that the shares, at just over 7p, were not for the risk-averse, but that the upside potential was sufficient for me to rate them a ‘speculative buy’. They had previously soared from the 11.75p at which I recommended them in October 2009 on t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and edited until leaving this September to set up the Nifty Fifty offering – but fell all of the way back to sub 7p as the company’s current key value driver, Canada-listed Labrador Iron Mines, was heavily impacted by very significant falls in the iron ore price. Now with an 8.5p share price and following news today that Labrador has, in 2012, successfully completed its largest ever exploration programme, the following takes a renewed look at the Anglesey Mining investment proposition…

4360 days ago

Alexander Mining: Coming Good – Speculative Buy at 4.75p

AIM Listed Alexander Mining (LSE:AXM) has not been one of my better tips from my 12 years at t1ps. Recommended at 6.625p in June 2008 the shares are now 4.75p. I was urged by some former colleagues to dump the stock at a 2p share price in the summer but (unlike them) I bothered to speak to the management. The company is now starting to deliver ( at last) and there is now a growing case for rating the shares as a buy.

4361 days ago

Centamin Shares Collapse - Time for Bulletin Board Morons to apologise to me. Still a sell

I first tipped Egyptian gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) at 8p on t1ps.com. I advised readers to sell at 137p. I called it bloody brilliantly. In the summer at 67p to 75p I repeatedly urged folks to sell warning that the new Islamofascist rulers of Egypt had changed the game. I was greeted with heaps of abuse from Bulletin Board commentators (mainly here on ADVFN). Well arseholes the stock has almost halved ( again) today to a 27p share price so: a) you lose money and b) it is time for you to apologise. You can post your apologies on the comments section below just as you posted the abuse in the summer.

4363 days ago

Gable: More than 100% ahead and still a winner

Shares in Gable Holdings (LSE:GAH), the AIM-listed non-life insurance company underwriting a range of specialist commercial sector policies across Europe, have continued to make progress since I previously updated on the company towards the end of last month. This follows some positive December news flow, which I review in the following piece. I first recommended shares in this company in 12 years at t1ps – in this case in July 2006 when they traded at 18.5p. Since departing t1ps in September, I have updated in October (shares at 31.5p) and then last month (shares at 39p) – noting on both occasions that the share price looked to have a good way to go. Now with the share price at 41.5p ( so not a bad share tip), the following summarises my current thoughts…

4364 days ago

Vin Murria's Advanced Computer Software buys again - good deal?

AIM-listed healthcare and business management software and services provider, Advanced Computer Software (LSE ASW) has today announced a continuation of its buy-and-build strategy with an agreement to acquire Serco Learning, a leading UK education software provider, for £7.25 million in cash. This follows Advanced’s shares closing at an all-time high of 67.5p on Friday – capitalising the company at just over £251 million. The share price compares to 34p when I recommended the shares in September 2010 on t1ps, the website I founded in 2000 but departed in September. The following reviews today’s announcement from Advanced and the investment proposition at current share price levels…

4365 days ago

New Guest Contributor to TomWinnifrith.com – Steve Moore

Steve Moore joined t1ps.com, the website I founded in my bedroom in 2000 and left in September, straight out of university five or six years ago. We spoke most every day for those years. From January 2011 we worked together as the senior writer on t1ps. We were the entire t1ps team. He is a very talented analyst. He comes from the part of the world where folks marry their cousins but he smarter than your average Norfolk boy. And in October he left t1ps.

He left because an article appeared in his name which was extremely unpleasant and wildly inaccurate and which he was unaware of being on holiday at the time. Steve is a man of honour. He is now ploughing his career as a freelance writer and because he is a) clever and b) a man of integrity and c) a nice guy and d) slightly to the right of Genghis Khan, I am delighted to say that I will be running the odd piece by him as a guest contributor on this site as of next week. It makes this site more interesting and it helps out a man of honour who deserves my support and loyalty.

Steve will also be chipping in share tips on the new Onefreesharetip.com website which you can register for here.

Welcome aboard Steve.

4366 days ago

Orosur Mining - a gold winner so far for me and set to glisten

Orosur Mining (LSE OMI) is an AIM and Canada listed gold producer, shares in which I initially recommended as a share tip at 24.25p in May 2010 on t1ps.com – the website I founded in 2000 but departed from in September – and subsequently updated on here last month. On Friday the company released a production update which I review in the following against a backdrop of a 37.75p share price

4367 days ago

Buy Amara Mining at 65p – worth 99p to 124p says top broker Ocean Equities

Top broker Ocean Securities has published a buy note on Amara Mining (LSE:AMA) in which it suggests that investors buy the shares at 65p with a target price of 99p. I long followed Amara, formerly known as Cluff Gold on t1ps.com and I also regard the shares as very cheap. As I shall explain below.

4368 days ago

Blogging for Only One Reader

Before he gets paranoid and I get a snotty letter from Kerman’s this is not a story about the life of Dick Gill. Nor is it about life on this blog where we seem to have more and more readers. Unlike certain places I could mention. But it is a true story from the world of academia and Bristol University.

I spent a happy Sunday afternoon in a Bristol pub last week celebrating West Ham’s triumph over Chelski and met two academics who had been encouraged by the University to write a joint blog article for an in-house blog. That they had done and seemed to have enjoyed the exercise. So, er how many folks will read the piece I asked?

Easy, they replied. We can track it. Our article has been read by one person.

4368 days ago

First Property Interims & CEO Chat

AIM listed property investment group First Property (LSE:FPO) has not exactly been a stellar share tip from my twelve years running t1ps.com. I tipped the stock at 19.25p in May 2008 and after publishing results for the six months to 30th September yesterday the shares trade at 18.75p. We have, to be fair, enjoyed 4.82p in dividends, so it is no disaster either. But where next? I chatted at length to the rather posh CEO Ben Habib yesterday and this is very interesting – the market capitalisation is £20.82 million.

4369 days ago

K3 Business Technology – AGM statement buying opportunity

I initially recommended shares in K3 Business Technology (KBT), an AIM-listed provider of software, hosting and managed services to the supply chain industry, at 145p in August 2007 on t1ps, the website I founded in 2000 but departed from in September of this year. The shares hit 236.5p in 2011 and again traded above 200p earlier this year before falling back to the initial tip price on news on 18th September of this year that the company was to terminate a formal sale process as the board did not believe that takeover proposals received were at a level that it would be able to recommend to shareholders. With the share price at 147.5p following an AGM trading update today, the following reviews this and the current investment case here…

4369 days ago

ILX Restructuring – Back the Bos?

Last week, ILX Group (LSE:ILX), the AIM-listed provider of e-learning software and business training, announced the shock departure of long time CEO Ken Scott. And this week we have weakfish interims and news of a restructuring. It is all coming rather thick and fast but suggests that 29.9% shareholder and new executive chairman/interim CEO Wayne Bos is acting ruthlessly to turn this ship around. His interests are aligned with those of other shareholders and he has a good track record. Should you back the Bos despite the admission that half year numbers were “disappointing.” On balance there is a case to be made, at a share price of 10.125p, although, as I discuss below, it is not 100% clear cut. This has been one of my worse share tips from t1ps.com and I apologise The issue is what next?

4370 days ago

Access Intelligence: Shoot the dog or follow the bird in charge?

Shares in AIM-listed governance, risk and compliance software provider Access Intelligence (LSE:ACC) have yet to really spark since I recommended them on t1ps, the website I founded in 2000 and edited until September of this year, in November 2010 at 4.25p. They have traded briefly above 5p since but fell to lows of 2.25p a year ago. They have subsequently recovered somewhat and a material director share purchase announced today sees the shares currently trading more than 11% ahead on the day at a 3.75p share price. The following reviews this further and takes a look at the current investment case…

4370 days ago

IQE – A world leader from Wales (there has to be one)

Like a capitalist-supporting article in the Guardian or a Gordon Brown appearance in Parliament, AIM-listed IQE plc (LSE:IQE) is a rarest of things – in its case a Welsh world leader in an economic space. The company is a leading global supplier of advanced ‘wafer’ products and services to the semiconductor industry – which then utilises them in the chips which comprise the key components of high-technology systems. Having taken a healthy profit on the shares in August 2010, I re-recommended them at 24.75p in February of this year on t1ps, the website I departed in September having edited it for the 12 years since its launch in 2000. Following a contract announcement today the share price is 27p and the following reviews this announcement and the investment case from here…

4371 days ago

Pan African Resources Evander purchase update

AIM-listed, South Africa-focussed precious metals miner Pan African Resources (LSE:PAF) has today updated investors on the ongoing process for its prospective Rand1.5 billion (circa. £110 million) acquisition of Evander Gold Mines Ltd. At a current 20.75p share price, capitalising the company at just over £300 million (£378 million adjusting for a prospective rights issue), Pan African remains a big winner from my time at t1ps – the website I founded but departed in September – where I first recommended the shares in November 2005 at a share price of 2.6875p. Surely even barking mad Bulletin Board loon Bob Burnard accepts that was a good share tip? The following reviews the current position here…

4374 days ago

Creston: Not a good share tip so far – do results herald recovery?

Shares in fully-listed marketing services group Creston (LSE:CRE) have not been a good share tip from me so far. They were recommended on t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and departed in September of this year – at a share price of 107.5p in May 2011 and hit a subsequent high of 121p the following month. However, they then slumped to a low of 47p by the end of January this year as macroeconomic conditions took their toll. The shares have since recovered to a current 77.5p and a couple of days ago the company announced its results for the six months to 30th September. The following reviews these and the insight they offer on the current valuation…

4374 days ago

Minera: Good news from Peru – cheap but are there cheaper gold plays?

AIM, Canada and Peru-listed gold mining stock Minera IRL (LSE: MIRL) has today announced the results of a feasibility study on its Ollachea project in Peru. This is a company I have followed for a couple of years on t1ps.com and more recently on my own blog and which I have recently written about in a modestly bullish way twice – with the share price lower than it is today. The following reviews the feasibility study announcement and its implication on the current investment case…is it still a good share tip?

4375 days ago

Advanced Computer Software- I am 96% ahead but still a bull

I published an pre-results note last week on AIM-listed, UK-focussed healthcare and business management software and services company Advanced Computer Software (LSE: ASW) ahead of the company’s results for the six months ended 31st August announced yesterday. As expected, the results were strong and the share price has moved ahead to hit a high of 66.5p – capitalising the company at £246.3 million and providing not a bad return since I recommended them as a share tip on t1ps, the website I founded in 2000 and wrote for until September, at 34p in September 2010. The following reviews the results and current investment proposition…

4375 days ago

Avanti Communications: Director Buying & Cenkos Note with 900p target: Buy

The share price of AIM listed satellite group Avanti Communications (LSE: AVN) was marked down by 10% yesterday. Oh no! Is bear raider Evil Knievil right after all? Is there an institution bailing? The emails flooded in. Evil is not correct. A director has bought shares this morning and there is also an upbeat broker research note out from Cenkos this morning. If there was something amiss then Avanti would have had to declare it at its recent AGM. It did not.

My own support for Avanti is well known. The stock was a share tip from me at 116p on t1ps.com but I continue to value it at a multiple of today’s 223p – a market cap of £251 million.

4376 days ago

First Property – A Pre Results buy?

Shares in AIM listed UK and Central Europe commercial property fund manager First Property (LSE: FPO) were recommended on t1ps, the website I founded in 2000 and edited until I left in September to set up the Nifty Fifty, at 19.25p in May 2008. They presently trade at 19p and thus, though the company has paid out 4.82p per share in dividends since the initial share tip, this has not been a stellar recommendation – but far from disastrous either. Ahead of results from the company for the six months ended 30th September 2012 – due a week today (on 5th December) – the following takes a look at the current position here…

4377 days ago

Plastics Capital: Results Comment Boring is still sexy

AIM-listed manufacturer of niche plastics products for global markets, Plastics Capital (LSE:PLA) has today announced its results for the six months ended 30th September 2012. This is a company whose shares I first recommended on t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and left in September this year to set up the Nifty Fifty – at 40.5p in November 2009. I again commented positively here in September, offering a free share tip with the shares then at 66p, and the share price is now 72p on the back of today’s release. The following reviews the results and the outlook from here…

4377 days ago

Gable: New business announcement – starting to sparkle

AIM-listed non-life insurance company, Gable Holdings (GAH), has been something of a star share price performer recently – the shares having commenced 2012 trading at 22.125p and now at a year high of 39p. I first recommended these shares on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and edited until this September when I left to start the Nifty Fifty, at 18.5p in July 2006 – so this has been something of a slow burner which is now sparking into life as a red hot penny share. This is particularly gratifying as I gave an updated view on the company last month, with the shares then at 31.5p, concluding that “the shares would not be particularly expensive at double current levels and believe there materially more gains to come for shareholders here. Still a buy at up to 37p in my view with a target of 60p”. The following reviews a new business announcement from the company today and the outlook from here…

4378 days ago

Farewell Nexus – Hello Enables IT: Will it be any less of a dog?

It has today been announced that the reverse takeover of long-term disappointment, IT managed services provider, Nexus Management has been completed and that the enlarged company has been readmitted to AIM as Enables IT Group (EIT). I need no reminding of what an appalling tip Nexus was for me. During my 12 year stint at t1ps.com MY average gain per tip was 42.7%. Nexus pulled down that average badly. So do we stick with the new group?

4378 days ago

Reach4 Entertainment – Meaningful Director Buying

The directors of media and entertainment company, Reach4Entertainment (LSE:R4E) have made good on their previous stated intention “to subscribe for new ordinary shares at the prevailing mid-market price but not less than the placing price, as soon as these (Spot & Co earn-out payment) discussions conclude”. The following reviews today’s announcement from the company on this and the investment proposition from here. This was a very bad share tip by me at 81p on t1ps.com. But anyone who averaged down as I advised at 3.5p should on balance now be showing gains. I know some were panicked by others into selling at the bottom. I am sorry if you took that duff advice. The question is where to go from here.

4378 days ago

Anglesey Mining - Recovery Play or Dog to Shoot?

I recommended shares in fully-listed Anglesey Mining (AYM) on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and edited until leaving this September to set up the Nifty Fifty. That share tip was at 11.75p in October 2009. They subsequently raced ahead and I am kicking myself for, particularly in 2011, not banking a very significant profit. Today the shares trade down at just over 7p as the company’s current key value driver, Canada-listed Labrador Iron Mines in which Anglesey holds 19.73% of the shares, has been heavily impacted by very significant late Summer falls in the price of iron ore.

Having dropped 33% to below $90 per tonne (on a 62% Fe cost & freight China basis) in early September, this price has recovered to around $120 per tonne and, with Anglesey having today announced results for the six months ended 30th September 2012, the following takes a look at the outlook from here…

4381 days ago

Minoan: Acquisitions, Trading Update and Company Chat. Recovery play 2013?

AIM listed travel leisure and property group has not been one of my better share tips from my days at t1ps but news out this week points the way to it being, potentially, a great recovery play for 2013. At 8.375p the company is now valued at £12.6 million. That does look far too low for me and this is why.

4381 days ago

Pan African: Rights Issue News - can we build on a 644% gain?

AIM-listed, South Africa-focussed gold miner Pan African Resources (PAF) is a big winner from my days at t1ps.com – the website I departed in September after twelve years. I recommended the shares there at 2.6875p in November 2005 and they currently trade at 20p a gain of 644%. The following reviews an announcement the company has made today about a c£50 million right issue and whether there remains more share price upside to come…

4381 days ago

EMED: Broker Fox-Davies thinks shares will treble & Slovak approval

Regulatory approval for EMED (EMED): Great news we have been waiting so long for this news. But sadly this is not the final Spanish permits needed to get the giant Rio Tinto copper mine underway but news from Slovakia. Meanwhile broker Fox Davies reckons that the shares could treble from 10.625p to 32p. I think it is correct about this stock I first covered on t1ps.com. But to Slovakia first.

4382 days ago

Interquest Trading Update: Buy, sell or hold?

My July 2006 recommendation on t1ps.com (the site I founded in 2000 and edited until this September) of shares in specialist IT recruitment group, InterQuest (ITQ) is not one which has covered me in glory. Having tipped the shares at 67.5p, they traded above 80p until economic conditions darkened in the second quarter of 2008. A low of 30.5p was hit in February 2009 and the shares again traded at sub 35p in August of this year. Having recovered a bit, to a current 49p, the company has served up a trading statement today so do you buy sell or hold?

4383 days ago

Jubilee Platinum Concentrator announcement: enough to halt the share slump?

Jubilee Platinum (JLP) is a recommendation from my t1ps.com days which has far from covered me in glory – the shares currently trading barely above 2009 lows of 7.125p. An announcement today though has sent them currently more than 3% higher to 7.875p and the following reviews this…

The company has announced it has entered into an agreement to utilise the concentrator at Platinum Australia’s Smokey Hills project in South Africa – with it committed the full capacity of the concentrator for a minimum of 8 months and the parties having commenced formalising a toll processing agreement.

4383 days ago

Lombard Risk Management New product launch and company chat

Lombard Risk Management (LRM) is an AIM-listed financial services industry focussed software company whose clients include more than 30 of the world’s ‘top 50’ financial institutions and almost half of the banks operating in the UK. I first recommended the shares on t1ps.com – the website I founded but departed from in September of this year to launch the Nifty Fifty – at 9.625p in 2005. They currently trade at 10p so this has been far from a red hot recommendation so far. However, I have taken some encouragement from recent operational pronouncements and see today that the company has announced the launch of a new compliance and audit application. Following a chat with the main man – founder, CEO and main shareholder John Wisbey – I offer the following thoughts…

4383 days ago

Minera: Don Nicolas update – worth a nibble

AIM-listed, Latin America-focussed gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) has today announced a resource update for its Don Nicolas project in the mining-friendly Santa Cruz province of Argentina. These are shares I previously recommended on t1ps.com ( the site I founded in 2000 and edited until September this year before leaving to establish the new Nifty Fifty site) and I updated on them at 50.25p a couple of weeks ago – urging readers to buy a few. With the shares now at 56.25p, the following scribbling reviews today’s announcement from the company…

4384 days ago

Advanced Computer Software – Almost 100% ahead: what next?

Shares in UK-focussed healthcare and business management software and services company Advanced Computer Software (ASW) were recommended on t1ps.com (the website I founded and edited until September of this year when I left to set up The Nifty Fifty) at 34p in September 2010. They have risen consistently since to currently trade at 62.75p – not far off recent highs of 63.75p. Ahead of results for the six months ended 31st August 2012 expected next Wednesday (28th November), the following previews what we can expect…

4384 days ago

Accumuli: Results Today still a buy ( 80% upside)

Accumuli plc (ACM) is a UK-based IT security software and services provider – shares in which were recommended as a hot share tip in May at 11.125p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and worked for until September when I left to set up the Nifty Fifty website. The company has today announced results for the six months ended 30th September 2012 and the following reviews these and the current investment case with the shares now at 10.5p.

4384 days ago

Amara Mining (Cluff Gold) Baomahun Results Analysis

I tipped Cluff Gold (CLF) in September 2011 at 96p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and left three months ago to set up the Nifty Fifty
. Like most AIM listed gold shares Cluff has taken a beating but the shares have rallied in recent days and are now at 63.25p following the release of a new resource estimate for the Baomahun project. Those who nibbled at 58.5p the other day after I published a detailed analysis here will be feeling reasonably happy.

4384 days ago

InternetQ – another tech buy?

Shares in InternetQ (INTQ), a provider of mobile marketing and digital entertainment for mobile network operators and brands, were a February 2012 recommendation on t1ps.com – the website I departed in September, 12 years after found it, in order to set up the Nifty Fifty. Having fallen back in the second half of this year, the shares are, at 182.5p, now little changed on the initial t1p price. The following takes a look at the outlook from here…

4385 days ago

Densitron - Getting Interesting

I published an update on AIM-listed electronic displays designer and developer Densitron Technologies (DSN) last week – concluding that a low earnings multiple and its balance sheet backing were sufficient to make me believe the shares were worth sticking with. Since my original tip on t1ps.com, the site I founded and edited for 12 years before leaving in September to set up the Nifty Fifty, my followers are 21% ahead.

The company has today announced what it describes as a “significant move forward” in its long-term strategy to create intellectual property and provide additional services that enable it to meet a fuller range of product requirements.

The following takes a look at the announcement…

4385 days ago

IQE – a safe tech wonder stock?

I recommended shares in AIM-listed IQE plc (IQE) at 24.75p in February of this year on t1ps.com – the site I founded in 2000 and left in September of this year. Shares in this leading global supplier of advanced wafer products and services to the semiconductor industry (which uses them to make the chips which form the key components of high-technology systems) now trade at 28.75p – so we are already a bit ahead here but could this be a red hot penny share? In the following I take a look at the outlook for the company from here…

4385 days ago

Tomograph to go twice weekly – register now for Wednesday share tip edition

I am told that quite a few followers of mine from t1ps.com days hate twitter and would like more regular alerts on my share material. And so as of this week, I shall be making the Tomograph a twice weekly newsletter. The Saturday edition will stay as it is. But the Wednesday edition will include:

1. Editor’s (that my) choice. Links to the three most interesting pieces of the past week produced across the free to access sites I write for

2. A free share tip. A tip will go up on one of those sites 1 minute before the Tomograph goes live. It may be from me or it might just be from one of the guest writers who will be appearing here in the New Year. The only way to get the alert on that tip is via the Tomograph.

3. Links to ALL the share based articles that have appeared on the website in the previous seven days in descending order of popularity.

4. A short piece from me on an investment related theme.

Going forward all Tomograph newsletters will be archived in arrears. So if you want to be kept informed and get the alerts on time for the free share tips and the other material you need to register.

I stress that I am not going to sell this list. It is for Tomograph purposes only.

You can sign up at once HERE

Please do so

Tom

4388 days ago

Centamin – Quarterlies Good Enough But...

I have never said that Egypt-focused, London and Canada listed, gold miner Centamin (CEY) was a bad company. After all I tipped the shares at 8p on t1ps.com and got my readers to sell at 134p – not a bad result. My problem is that it operates in Egypt. That is the country next to Gaza happily assisting Hamas as the heat gets turned up in the region.

Centamin announced results for the third quarter of 2012 on Wednesday. Despite reporting record quarterly earnings, the share price has continued to decline since.

4389 days ago

Reach4Entertainment – It was a recovery play, I was right

PrintReach4Entertajnment (LSE:R4E) was a disastrous tip by me during my 12 years at t1ps.com – I first recommended it at 81p. Back on September 21st those now running t1ps advised their readers to sell at 3.5p, not having bothered to speak to the company first. I did and called it as a recovery buy. I hope folks followed my advice and averaged down as the shares are now 7.5p following two pieces of news today. Are they still cheap? I think so and here is why.

4389 days ago

Densitron: 21 Per Cent gains so far what next?

Shares in AIM-listed electronic displays company Densitron Technologies (DSN) were recommended on t1ps.com – the website I founded and from which I departed in September – at 11.75p in December 2010. In May 2011 a 5p per share special distribution was made to shareholders and since the t1p 1p per share has been paid out in ordinary dividends. With the shares currently trading at 8.25p we are thus 21% ahead here and the following reviews what to do now.

4389 days ago

Aureus Mining Q3 Results: Still a sell?

Aureus Mining (AUE) was a poorly timed recommendation from my 12 years at t1ps.com and I recommended selling and reinvesting in more attractive gold plays at the start of this month with the shares at 57.25p. Following results for the company’s third quarter (to 30th September) released today, the shares now trade at 50p. Does this change my view?

4389 days ago

Light Blogging Day Ahead: All the Fault of Zak Mir

Saqib Ahmed Mir ( Zak) is my daughter’s godfather and one of my few friends. He is also the most unreliable man on this planet and it is entirely his fault that this will be a light blogging day. You see he was meant to pop in to Real Man Pizza for a quick glass of wine at around six last night. By the time he actually pitched up it was 11 PM, I had already had a few glasses to while away the time and was finding it hard not to pen a third article comparing the accuracy of shots by the woeful England football team and the laudable Israeli Defence Forces.

By the time Zak left our mutual pal Alpesh Patel was heading off for a 5 AM TV appointment despite my misguided efforts to persuade him to pop into Real Man for a quick drink instead.

4390 days ago

Amara Mining (formerly Cluff Gold) Q3 Results – On Track: shares very cheap -

I tipped Cluff Gold (CLF) in September 2011 at 96p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and left three months ago. Like most AIM listed gold shares Cluff has taken a beating and the stock closed at 58.5p today after the release of third quarter numbers. To reflect a change of leadership the company has now changed its name to Amara Mining (AMA). That seems like a bit of wasteful corporate PR willy-waving to me but, ignoring that, it seems to me that the fundamentals look increasingly attractive for Cluff, sorry Amara, and that this is not reflected in the stock price. Here is why.

4390 days ago

Ovoca Gold: Time to cut losses?

I recommended shares in AIM and Ireland listed Ovoca Gold (OVG) in my t1ps.com days (in this case in October 2010) at 30.75p. They rose to above 38p in December of that year but have consistently fallen back since – hitting 10p in June of this year. Currently trading at 12p, I apologise for a recommendation which has clearly not worked out to this point. Perhaps it is time to cut losses? Or is this a red hot penny share in the waiting?

4390 days ago

Kryso Resources: 134% ahead – time to sell?

I initially recommended shares in AIM-listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 13.25p in December 2007 on t1ps.com the site I founded 12 years ago and edited until this September. Today shares in the company – which is currently developing its Pakrut gold project in Tajikistan towards production – trade at 31p so we are 134% ahead. Not bad. With exploration work continuing at Pakrut and other nearby targets, is it time to bank a gain?

4391 days ago

Ariana Resources: Drilling Update Good but not Good enough

I recommended AIM listed Turkey based gold mine developer Ariana Resources (AAU) on t1ps.com in August 2011 at 4.5p. The shares are now 1.425p and so clearly I have not exactly covered myself in glory. The company announced a detailed exploration update yesterday which was good but does not answer the question of whether this is a storming recovery play or just a dog to shoot. Here is why.

The exploration took place on Ariana’s Kepez West and Karakavak prospects, located along the Sindirgi Gold Corridor which also contains the Kiziltepe Sector of the Red Rabbit Gold Project.

4391 days ago

Adept Telecom: Up on my share tip but still cheap?

Shares in AdEPT Telecom (ADT), a leading independent provider of telecommunications voice and data services in the UK, were recommended on t1ps.com at 46p earlier this year, before my departure 12 years after founding the website. The shares currently trade at 53.5p – up 0.5p today following the announcement of results for the six months ended 30th September 2012. The following reviews the results and the investment case…

4391 days ago

Orosur Mining: Bank a 66% gain or double up?

I recommended shares in AIM and Canada listed Orosur Mining (OMI) – which operates the only producing gold mine in Uruguay (San Gregorio) and has additional exploration acreage in Uruguay and Chile – in May 2010 at 24.25p on t1ps.com, the website I left in September 12 years after I founded it . The shares currently trade at 40.5p, though the current levels compare to highs of 91.5p hit in early 2011. Last month the company announced results for its first fiscal 2013 quarter (to 31st August 2012) and, noting that recently “the patience and confidence of shareholders with the company has been tried”, a statement on its forward strategy. In the following I review these announcements and the Orosur investment case from here.

4391 days ago

Firestone Diamonds – Harsh but Fair Broker Note says it all

AIM Listed Firestone Diamonds (LSE:FDI) was a duff tip from me from my days at t1ps.com. Even when you average gain per tip over 12 years was 42.7% you have losers and this was one of them. I advised bailing out at 6.125p on October 25th. Results are out today, the shares are still 6.125p but they are, I am afraid an open invitation to sell. A piece of broker research from the excellent Roger Bade at Whitman Howard says it all:

4392 days ago

Printing.com Results: Buy for 8% yield?

I originally recommended shares in AIM-listed printing company Printing.com (PDC) in February 2008 at 42p on t1ps.com, the website I founded 12 years ago and left this September. It has subsequently paid out 16p per share in dividends ( with another 1.05p pending) but with its key markets in the UK, Ireland and continental Europe facing difficult economic times, the shares currently trade at 32p. Overall we are thus just under 15% ahead on this one after four and a half years. Not great but no disgrace. The company has today released results for the six months ended 30th September 2012 and in the following I review these and what they say about the current investment case.

4395 days ago

Vatukoula Completes Placing – It hurts but the shares are cheap

Vatukoula Gold Mines (LSE:VGM) has today announced that it has completed its botched replacement placing to raise £6.6 million gross from Chinese investor Zhongrun International Mining Co. Ltd at 33p a pop. The shares are now 32.5p. I can understand why folks are giving up on this one. Numerous placings – including this rather botched one ( Zhongrun came into replace another Chinese outfit which did not stump up its promised shekels in a 51p placing) – and numerous project delays. But I would not give up. This was a bad share tip from my t1ps.com days (I am 35% down) but I’d buy more and here is why.

4395 days ago

Northern Petroleum Board Upgrade – A Step in the Right Direction

I tipped oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and edited until this September at 13.75p. The shares raced ahead to almost 150p but have since declined to just 64.75p. But news out today suggests that the company is making a step in addressing one issue it has, next up we await drilling news from Guyane.

4396 days ago

Minera IRL: a gold stock to buy or sell? -

I first recommended shares in AIM listed Latin America gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) at 69p in May 2010 on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and left this September. Despite having the safety net of current production, the shares have unfortunately not escaped the negative sentiment towards the sector in recent times – and traded at 41p as recently as early September this year. They have recovered somewhat to currently trade at 50.25p but is there more to come? Earlier this week the company released results for its third quarter ended 30th September and here I take a look at those and assess the current investment case…

4397 days ago

Interquest: Dog or Recovery Play?

My July 2006 recommendation on t1ps.com (the site I founded in 2000 and edited until this September) of shares in specialist IT recruitment group, InterQuest (LSE: ITQ) is not one which has covered me in glory. Having tipped the shares at 67.5p, they traded above 80p until economic conditions darkened in the second quarter of 2008. A low of 30.5p was hit in February 2009 and the shares again traded at sub 35p in August of this year. Having recovered a bit, to a current 44p, since I take a look here at the company’s results for the first half of 2012 and their implications on the current investment case…

4397 days ago

Greggs: buy or sell

I recommended shares in the UK’s leading bakery retailer, fully listed Greggs (GRG) at 508p on t1ps.com the website I founded in 2000. The share tip came out just two months before my departure in September of this year. The shares traded above 520p as recently as 8th October but, following an 11th October trading update, currently trade at 470p. The following takes a look at that trading update from John Prescott’s favourite shop and what it means for the investment case.

4400 days ago

Ariana Resources – Catch Up Lunch with CEO Kerim Sener

I recommended AIM listed Turkey based gold mine developer Ariana Resources (LSE:AAU) on t1ps.com in August 2011 at 4.5p. The shares are now 1.6p and so clearly I have not exactly covered myself in glory. I met up for lunch with CEO Kerim Sener last week for a catch up. Is this a busted flush or could it be a great recovery play for 2013. It is an interesting case study. There are three problems but three assets, let me explain

4402 days ago

Silverdell – Still a buy?

AIM-listed Silverdell (SID), a provider of decommissioning and remediation services to high hazard and regulated environments, was recommended on t1ps.com at 12.75p in August, just before I departed t1ps in the following month more than 12 years after founding the site. After a ‘trading and strategic update’ last month, Silverdell shares currently trade at 13.25p. The following reviews that update and the investment proposition here…

4403 days ago

Aureus Mining – A winner or a loser in the gold stakes?

AIM listed Aureus Mining (AUE) is a gold development and exploration company, currently mainly focused on progressing its New Liberty project – which it is targeting to become the first commercial gold mine in Liberia. I apologise for having timed my recommendation poorly here – recommending the shares at 84.5p in August 2011 on t1ps.com, during my 12 year stint there. Now trading at 57.25p, I review the investment case based on the informed view of where the best place to currently be in the gold sector is…

4403 days ago

Vatukoula – New China Placing: is it time to junk?

Another day and another placing from AIM listed gold miner Vatukoula (VGM). The shares are down to 35p and given the convoluted circumstances of this placing I can understand why some are tempted to sell and move on. Having recommended the shares at 46.5p on t1ps.com, the site I founded 12 years ago and edited until September I am not best pleased. However I would not be selling, I’d be buying and here is why.

4404 days ago

Centamin: Another Day - Another pathetic RNS. Just not convincing at all

And so it came to pass on the third day that Centamin (LSE:CEY) issued another RNS insisting that the new Islamofascist regime in Egypt had not after all stolen its Sukhari gold mine. The shares remain suspended because the truth is that no-one has the foggiest idea what is going on. Not even Centamin by the sound of it. If these shares return from suspension what, I wonder, are they worth?

4404 days ago

Centaur Media – Time to bank a gain? Or More to come?

I originally recommended shares in UK-focused business information, events and marketing services group, Centaur Media (LSE:CAU) in October 2009 at 44p on t1ps.com – the website I founded in my bedroom and edited until September 2012 ( delivering an average gain per share tip of 42.7%). But Centaur has been a rocky road – with the shares hitting highs of 73p in early 2011 then, as the UK economic environment bleakened, falling to lows of 28.5p in June of this year. Currently trading at 50.75p, in the following article I review the company’s results for its year ended 30th June 2012 – which were released on September 13th – and take a fresh look at the investment case. Is this a red hot penny share or have we run our course?

4405 days ago

Archipelago Resources: Q3 results in line: buy at 62p – target price 95p plus

I first recommended AIM listed gold producer, Archipelago Resources (LSE:AR.) back in December 2004 at 27.5p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in my bedroom 12 years ago and edited until September this year. At 62p today it has not been a bad share tip. However third quarter ( to September 30th) numbers out today show that the company is very much on track for its planned ramp up in production at its flagship 95% owned Toka Tindung mine in Indonesia and I reckon that the shares are worth at least 95p. Here is why.

4405 days ago

Nexus – Reverse Takeover: Hope at last?

AIM listed IT services group Nexus (NXS) has been one of my most disastrous tips of all time. I recommended the shares at 0.89p in December 2006 and many times since on t1ps.com the site I founded and edited for 12 years until September 2012. My average gain per tip over 12 years and 240 tips would have been more than 42.7% had it not been for this shocker. The shares are now at 0.105p following news today of a Reverse Takeover and thus the lifting of a suspension on the shares. I can only apologise for what was a piss-poor tip. In my defence, one of my last acts as a piss poor fund manager was to force out the old management team. I am now more convinced than ever that had I not done this, the company would today be bust. But where now? Could this be a red hot penny share for recovery or is it still a dog?

4405 days ago

Skywest Bid from Virgin – What next?

Australian and South East Asia regional airline Skywest (LSE:SKYW) has announced that ASX-listed Virgin Australia has proposed, subject to conditions including regulatory and Skywest shareholder approval, an Australian$0.4688 (AUD$0.225 cash and 0.53 Virgin Australia shares) per Skywest share takeover offer. Those who followed my original share tip on this one from t1ps.com the website I edited for 12 years (but left in September) have thus more than doubled their money. But what to do now?

4405 days ago

Centamin: The company issues pathetic response to asset theft – not convincing: sell if you can

Fully listed Centamin (CEY) has now formally responded to the fact that the Islamofascist regime in Egypt has stolen its main asset. Its response is not in any way convincing. It is quite clear that an Egyptian Court has revoked the license yet the company seems to suggest otherwise. On the basis that no-one seems to know what is going on the shares remain suspended. If, at any stage, you can sell I would. Here, in Centamin’s own words is why.

4406 days ago

Town Centre Securities – A good share tip but how good?

I recommended shares in Town Centre Securities (LSE:TCSC) – a Leeds-based northern property investor and developer – in April 2010 at 148.75p on t1ps.com the site I founded 12 years ago and ran until this September. The company has since paid out 20.88p in dividends and the shares currently trade at 184p – so this has been a pretty decent share tip for those who followed my advice. Results for the company’s year ended 30th June 2012 were released last month and in light of that I wonder if it really is still a red hot penny share or if it is time to take profits.

4406 days ago

Hambledon Mining: a dog to shoot or a recovery play?

AIM listed gold producer Hambledon Mining (HMB) has not covered me in glory. Recommended at 3.25p in November 2008 on the site I founded and edited for 12 years until this September (t1ps.com) the shares now trade at 1.275p. Most mining juniors have not prospered (they raced ahead and then fell) but Hambledon has fared worst than most. This was a bad tip. I apologise. But what to do now? Call it a day and shoot the dog or is this a red hot penny share recovery play? I spoke to the company at length today

4406 days ago

The Nifty Fifty is live

Yesterday ADVFN launched the Nifty Fifty, a new website which I am writing. While s atream on new investment ideas will appear in the next few days, starting in a few hours, it has only one article on it so far, yesterday’s editorial. And this is it. It outlines a bit of what is to come. In future content on the Nifty Fifty stays for members only but this is a brief glimpse.

4407 days ago

Mission Marketing: Time to bank chunky gains?

I recommended shares in UK marketing communications and advertising group Mission Marketing (LSE:TMMG) in February of this year at 19.125p on t1ps.com, the site I set up in my bedroom 12 years ago but left in September. At that stage I identified them as a value, recovery play as the company’s cash generation meant debt concerns continued to look to be overly-discounted in the valuation. As the market has gradually come to further appreciate this, the shares now trade at 30p. Not bad in just 8 months. But what now?

4408 days ago

About my Work on ADVFN

I have known ADVFN CEO Clem Chambers for years and years. He is a peculiar character but we have always got on reasonably well. When he sensed that my days at t1ps.com – the site I founded in my bedroom 12 years ago but left behind in September of this year – were drawing to a close he offered me the chance to do some freelance writing for his online newspaper – a new feature of the ADVFN site.

Initially I was a bit sceptical. My experience of writing for a number of PLCs is not good. They can be very restrictive in why you can, or cannot, say. But Clem and his chairman Mike Hodges said there would be no controls.

I tested this in an early article inviting Islamofascists to issue a fatwah against Clem (and myself) and he waived it through and even laughed at my little joke

4409 days ago

Anpario (Kiotech as was) – one for the cat litter?

I recommended shares in Anpario (ANP – Kiotech as was) back in August 2009 at the equivalent of 103.5p on t1ps.com. Today shares in this international supplier of natural feed additives which enhance the health and output of animals trade at 113.5p – up but not by much. The company is capitalised at £20.5 million. Results announced last month for the first half of calendar 2012 provide the platform for me to take a new look at the investment case…

4410 days ago

Firestone Diamonds - sell

This has been a shockingly bad tip from me from my 12 years running t1ps.com. The shares have popped up today. And so is this still a red hot penny share?

AIM-listed diamond miner, Firestone Diamonds (FDI), has today announced that a definitive feasibility study on its 75% owned Liqhobong diamond project in Lesotho has determined a post-tax Net Present Value at an 8% discount rate of $335 million (£208 million). This is for a 1.2 million carat per annum open pit operation over a 15 year life of mine. Given, at a current 6.125p share price, Firestone is presently capitalised at just £33.5 million ( and has c£4million of debt as well), the shares ostensibly appear to offer strong value – but is this actually the case? In the following I explain why perhaps not.

4411 days ago

Lombard Risk Management Interims – Still a buy at 10.5p (+ CEO Chat)

A long chat with Lombard Risk Management (LRM) CEO John Wisbey has finally come to an end. Interims today were as expected. The issue that I find hard is the company’s policy of capitalising R&D Spend. I shall discuss that in some detail below. I wonder if others quizzing him today on the site I ran for 12 years – t1ps.com – have focussed on this or have pulled their punches?

4411 days ago

NetCall: Good but is it that good?

I first recommended shares in Netcall (NET) on t1ps.com, a provider of customer engagement software, at 13.75p in August 2006 – banking a 58% capital gain in September 2009 when I considered the 21.75p per share valuation had largely caught up with events. Come February 2011 the shares were trading at 19.25p and, with the company looking to have made strong operational progress in the meantime, I re-recommended the shares. Following results last month they now stand at a near five-year high at 29.75p. I thus consider that I have called this one pretty well but what now? Is this a red hot penny share?

4412 days ago

Goldplat – An Omission from my 5 Gold stocks to buy? Why?

Yesterday I listed 5 gold stocks that you really should buy if, like myself and Malcolm Burne, you were bullish on the gold price. I warned that there were dozens to sell as they would be toast within a year. This sector is a binary play. I am asked why was Goldplat (GDP), a stock I first flagged in the 12 years when I ran t1ps.com, not listed on the buy list? Is it a sell? Let me explain.

4412 days ago

Staffline: 210 Per Cent gain so far but there is more to come

I first recommended shares in AIM listed Staffline Group (LSE: STAF), a provider and manager of industrial workforces which operates from more than 190 locations in the UK, at 77.5p in March 2010 on t1ps.com . The payment of a 3.1p per share interim dividend on 9th November – as declared in the company’s results for the first half of calendar 2012 released last month – will take dividends received since the initial recommendation to 18.1p per share and the shares currently trade at 225.5p. So clearly this is no disaster – it has been a bit of a red hot penny share for me with a total gain of 210% so far. But what to do now?

4412 days ago

A quiz just for weather geek Zak Mir

There was I sitting in the pub minding my own business when a bloke came up and invited me to take part in the pub quiz. Normally I am always up for a good quiz. But a) he looked like a total weirdo and b) he said that it was weather themed. I declined.

This would, however, be where my good friend Zak Mir would have been in his element.

4413 days ago

Elektron – Not a Good tip from me, do we hang on?

initially recommended shares in Elektron Technology (LSE:EKT), a designer and manufacturer of precision engineered components for connectivity, instrumentation, monitoring and control, in April 2011 at 37.25p as the company looked be recovering well from the impacts of recession and customer de-stocking. The shares initially performed well for t1ps.com, the site I foundfed in my bedroom and ran for 12 years until this September,– hitting a high of 45p in the month following the recommendation. However, as macro economic progress has once again stalled so too has Elektron’s profit recovery – as most recently witnessed by results released in September for the six months to 31st July 2012. The shares are now 18.5p valuing Elektron at £22 million. I apologise for having made a bad call in my initial recommendation. What to do now? Is this a red hot penny share?

4448 days ago

Shanta Gold – Low Risk Very Cheap Gold Play

I first tipped AIM listed gold explorer and producer Shanta Gold (SHG) at 21.5p in July 2011 on the site I ran for 12 years until this September – t1ps.com. In my most recent performance stats (august 31st) it is in there at 20.5p but the shares are today trading at 29.25p and are still, very cheap. The Tanzanian based company is valued at £93 million, has cash and is now producing gold and material cashflows from its lead asset at Luika. I reckon that the stock is hugely undervalued. It really is a Red Hot Penny Share!

So what does Shanta own and what is it really worth?

4450 days ago

Attacked viciously by a poodle pup and West Ham match preview

I founded t1ps.com in my bedroom 12 years ago. But as of Wednesday my involvement is nil. It is none the less surprising to find the site you founded publishing a vicious and untruthful personal attack on you as happened on Friday.

I do not blame the young men whose names appear on the piece and whose safe hands the site is apparently in. They were still at University just a few years ago and are innocents on a wider stage. I am happy to be judged on what I produce, not claiming credit for others actions or blaming others for failures.

And so I do not propose to comment again on what appears on t1ps.

Despite this one unfortunate misjudgement, as I noted on Wednesday I continue to believe that folk at RSH are very good people and I continue to wish them all well. Let’s put things in perspective, West Ham are playing Norwich today. That is really important.

4454 days ago

Today I say goodbye to t1ps.com and ShareCrazy

I founded t1ps.com in my bedroom 12 years ago. And now we part company for good. This will be my last article on t1ps.com or ShareCrazy.

I have been writing here on an unpaid basis for a while in the belief that there would be a change of management. On Monday Rivington Street Holdings decided not to sell t1ps to a group of investors. Thus, since I am not a charity, this is my last piece. Henceforth, I shall have no involvement at all with any aspect of t1ps.com, its websites and its conferences. I wish everyone – Jim Mellon

4498 days ago

Holiday in Albania

For some reason I keep thinking of the Dead Kennedys’ classic “Holiday in Cambodia” as I prepare for a trip across the straights of Corfu early next week. If you cannot remember the number/never heard the tune, it will not appeal to all, but you can listen below.

If you cannot make out the lyrics it is this verse to which I refer (although the two that follow on the nature of work are pretty good)

“ It’s time to taste what you most fear
Right guard will not help you here
Brace yourself, my dear

It’s a holiday in Cambodia
It’s tough, kid, but its life
It’s a holiday in Cambodia
Don’t forget to pack a wife”

Of course Albania has moved on from the days of good old Enver Hoxha when machine gun posts on the border were there to keep people in, rather than out.

4528 days ago

Olivia is 11 – A very Proud father writes..

This is my personal blog and so if only one person reads this article (that being Olivia) I care little. But my daughter is 11 today, I am miles and miles away and I am terribly proud of her. She was a “miracle baby” in that she survived at all and although divorce has limited my contact with her there is not a day that goes by when I do not think of her, revel in her achievements and look forward to the next gripping instalment of her life.

Olaf was born a year into the life of t1ps.com.

4535 days ago

New Contract with ADVFN – I am NOT t1ps.com’s Paul Ince

A personal note follows at the end. West Ham supporters will understand the reference to Paul Ince, a man who is – unfairly in my view – known by Lucian and his pals as Judas. I digress. I have today signed two contracts with the UK’s largest website ADVFN. This does not mean that my relationship with t1ps.com changes.

4543 days ago

New Gold Book for the Autumn – Contract signed

I was wondering how to spend the summer as I take it slightly easier ahead of the next big challenge. And now I know. I have today signed a contract to produce a 30,000 word e-book for a well known financial website (er… not t1ps) on the subject of Gold.

At the speed I write, when I know something about a subject, this is a leisurely canter for me. Something to do on rainy days in England or during a family break in France. The thesis of the book is that gold is heading sharply higher and how to profit from that. The title … work in progress. How about “Gold at $3000 – how to maximise your profits.” I am not sure, the title is the last thing to worry about and I have a couple of months to figure that one out. Somehow I suspect that will not be my main job within a few weeks. But writing will certainly be at the heart of what I do.

4544 days ago

Farewell Rivington Street but not t1ps.com

Yes I have quit Rivington Street Holdings as well. I no longer work for the company. Why? I refer to my earlier acid tests on what I do next. I hope that I have made clear that going forward I shall only work a) with people I like and respect, b) where I earn a decent wedge and c) where I enjoy what I am doing. There was no need for Rivington to make such an announcement as I had quit as a director and it had been announced 3 weeks ago but there you go. I wish the decent, hard working staff at Rivington all the best for the future.

Does this mean that I am leaving t1ps.com? No. I have signed an agreement to write for it, do videos and help organise Master Investor, etc. There is a lot happening behind the scenes at t1ps – let’s see what happens and on that basis I am happy doing such work for t1ps.

But there are other things to do as well. I have just signed a contract to publish an e-book and am looking at a number of other interesting opportunities in the writing and consultancy area. It may well be that I throw myself 100% back into t1ps if all the acid tests are passed. We shall see.